FOMC Minutes Today: What the Fed's Hike Debate Means for Bitcoin as BTC Stalls Below $87,000, One Year After Its Record High

The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its September 15 to 16 meeting today, October 7, at 2:00 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC). That meeting delivered a unanimous 25 basis point hike to 3.75% to 4.00%, the first since July 2023.

The data has softened since. September payrolls rose just 29,000, unemployment climbed to 4.2%, and core PCE inflation printed 3.0%, cutting the odds of an October hike to about 20% from more than 60%.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been rejected at $87,000 three times since September 23 and trades near $85,500 as the dollar hovers near an 18-month high.

Tuesday marked one year since Bitcoin's all-time high above $126,000. BTC is about 32% below that peak, but its deepest drawdown of roughly 53% is far shallower than the 77% to 85% collapses of earlier cycles.

The minutes test the Fed's conviction. A committee united behind more hikes could cap Bitcoin below $87,000 again, while signs of division would support the case that tightening is nearly done.

 

 

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's September 15 to 16 meeting will be published at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time today, which is 18:00 UTC and 7:00 p.m. in Lagos. Released three weeks after each meeting, they are the fullest record of how officials reached a decision.

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% in a 12 to 0 vote, its first hike since July 2023, saying inflation "remains elevated" and that the move "will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal." Chair Kevin Warsh argued that inflation had been too high for too long, and the dot plot showed a median year-end rate of 4.1%, implying one more hike, with 16 of the 18 officials who submitted projections expecting further tightening in 2026. The hike landed a day after the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $76,000 that week before a rally to $87,000.

 

The data has since handed the doves new arguments. The September jobs report, released October 2, showed just 29,000 jobs added against about 84,000 expected, unemployment rising to 4.2%, and annual wage growth slowing to 3.0%, the weakest since May 2021. Core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, rose 0.2% in August and 3.0% from a year earlier, below the 3.3% consensus, although part of that improvement came from a Bureau of Economic Analysis overhaul of how it measures some service prices, which revised the series lower back to 2021.

The odds of a hike at the October 27 to 28 meeting fell from more than 60% before the jobs report to roughly 20% after it, according to CME FedWatch and prediction market data, and New York Fed President John Williams said there is "no need for urgency." The bond market is less convinced. Long-dated Treasury yields dipped only modestly on the weak payrolls and remain near levels last seen more than two decades ago, while the US dollar index climbed to about 102.5 on Monday, its highest level in nearly 18 months. A firm dollar and high yields have been recurring headwinds for Bitcoin this year.

 

A hawkish read would likely lift the dollar and yields and make a fourth failure at $87,000 more probable, while a divided committee would give Bitcoin room to test resistance again. Any reaction may fade quickly, since the October 28 decision and the next inflation report carry more weight.

 

Bitcoin has been turned back at $87,000 three times since September 23, most recently on Monday, and trades near $85,500 as of writing. QCP Capital says a break above $87,200 is needed to confirm the next leg higher, with support at $83,000 to $84,000 and then $80,000 to $81,000. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich says Bitcoin has "formed a trend of higher local lows" but lacks momentum: "The price has approached the apex of the triangle formed by horizontal resistance and rising support. We should therefore be prepared for increased volatility should the price break out of this pattern."

The signals are mixed. Bitcoin's 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages are about to align bullishly for the first time since June 2025, and the Fear and Greed Index reads 73. But Bitcoin is lagging stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 at a record, and spot Bitcoin ETF demand has cooled from about $2.39 billion of inflows in the week to September 25 to $241 million the following week, followed by roughly $90 million of outflows on Monday.

 

Tuesday, October 6 marked one year since Bitcoin's all-time high above $126,000. At about $85,500, BTC sits roughly 32% below the peak and needs to gain about 47% to reclaim it. The low came on June 30, just below $59,000, a maximum drawdown of about 53%, according to CoinDesk.

 

 

By historical standards, that is a mild bear market. One year after the 2013, 2017 and 2021 peaks, Bitcoin was down 69.7%, 82.3% and 74.6% respectively, and past cycles saw maximum drawdowns of 77% to 85%. This cycle also appears to have bottomed about nine months after the top, earlier than in past crypto winter cycles.

 

"The most notable changes are the significantly shortened duration of the drawdown and the reduced time spent at the bottom," said Tim Sun of HashKey Group, crediting institutional flows through ETFs and noting annualized volatility of "around 40%, which is noticeably lower than its long-term historical levels exceeding 80%." Griffin Ardern of Primal Fund argues that ETF allocators rebalance to target weights and so buy weakness by design, and that the leverage flushed out in the $19 billion liquidation of October 10, 2025 "never properly came back." He warns that rising long-term yields, with the 30-year Treasury recently at 5.7%, are the key risk: "If the 30-year [yield] defence keeps failing, this cycle may not stay shallow either."

 

Today pairs a scheduled catalyst with a well-defined range, so predefined risk matters. Traders can follow the live BTC/USDT price on MEXC, set alerts near $83,000 and $87,200, and watch the dollar and Treasury yields after 2:00 p.m. ET. On MEXC Futures, stop-loss and take-profit orders help define risk before the release rather than after a volatile first move.

 

Disclaimer: This content is for educational and reference purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset investments carry high risk. Please evaluate carefully and assume full responsibility for your own decisions.