Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

892 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Morning Minute: DraftKings Bets Big on Prediction Markets

Morning Minute: DraftKings Bets Big on Prediction Markets

The post Morning Minute: DraftKings Bets Big on Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack. GM! Today’s top news: Crypto majors reverse and flip red; BTC -1% at $107,500 BTC ETF inflows reach $477M, not enough to counter selling DraftKings acquires Railbird, plans to launch DraftKings Predictions app Polymarket and Kalshi reach licensing agreement with the NHL Jupiter launches its own prediction market powered by Kalshi 💰 DraftKings Bets Big on Prediction Markets DraftKings just made its most aggressive move yet outside of sports betting. And it wasn’t into casino, poker, or fantasy. It was into prediction markets. 📌 What Happened DraftKings announced it is acquiring Railbird Technologies, a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, and will use it to launch a standalone events trading app called DraftKings Predictions. Railbird comes with what Kalshi and others fought hard for – federal approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to let people trade real-money contracts on real-world outcomes. Now DraftKing’s 6M monthly users will get access to prediction markets (and its $15B company has a shiny new expansion path). DraftKings says the new app will launch “in the coming months” and initially cover non-sports markets – things like finance, pop culture, elections, entertainment, and news. Though sports are very likely to come later (especially in states where DraftKings is currently banned). 🗣️ What Are They Saying “We are excited about the additional opportunity that prediction markets could represent for our business. We believe that Railbird’s team and platform—combined with DraftKings’ scale, trusted brand, and proven expertise in mobile-first products—positions us to win in this incremental space.” – DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said in a statement to CNBC “DraftKings acquires prediction market firm Railbird As I shared last week…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Sam Altman’s World Adds Polymarket In Direct Integration

Sam Altman’s World Adds Polymarket In Direct Integration

The post Sam Altman’s World Adds Polymarket In Direct Integration appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. World, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s digital identity project, formerly known as Worldcoin, is expanding into prediction markets by integrating Polymarket. World App, a mobile application that combines a digital wallet with World’s decentralized identity tool, World ID, has integrated the Polymarket App, the company announced on Tuesday. “World App users can download and access the new Mini App today in countries where Polymarket’s services are permitted,” the announcement said. Both World App and Polymarket have faced usage restrictions globally, as Polymarket is yet to relaunch in the US after securing approval by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. World App users can bet on Polymarket with USDC and WLD The launch of the Polymarket Mini App on World enables World App users to place Polymarket bets directly from the World App wallet. The app allows users to participate in prediction markets using two crypto assets, Circle’s USDC (USDC) stablecoin and World’s native token, Worldcoin (WLD). Source: World “Eligibility for Worldcoin tokens is restricted based on geography, age and other factors,” World noted in the announcement, adding that the token is not available for distribution via World App to users residing and located in restricted areas, including New York state. “World Assets and World Foundation are not responsible for the availability of WLD on third party platforms, such as centralized or decentralized exchanges,” it added. World’s Mini App downloads pass 100 million The integration came soon after World passed a milestone of 100 million Mini App downloads in early October, underscoring the rising popularity of third-party apps available within World App. Introduced in October 2024, World’s Mini Apps are web applications that are natively integrated into World App. As of March 2025, World had at least 150 Mini Apps on its platform, with 10 million WLD ($8.8 million) transacted. Source: World…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Kalshi and Polymarket Strike Deals with National Hockey League

Kalshi and Polymarket Strike Deals with National Hockey League

The post Kalshi and Polymarket Strike Deals with National Hockey League appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The National Hockey League has signed multiyear licensing deals with prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, becoming the first major U.S. professional sports league to permit the use of its trademarks by markets outside the sportsbook industry, the Wall Street Journal reported. The agreements allow both companies to use official NHL branding — including team names, the league logo and terms like “Stanley Cup” — in their respective platforms where users trade on the outcomes of sports events. The move effectively puts Kalshi and Polymarket in direct competition with traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel. But the path each company is taking is different. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, giving it legal clearance to offer contracts in all 50 states, including those where online sports betting remains restricted. Polymarket, which operates on the blockchain and has faced regulatory challenges in the U.S., is preparing to relaunch domestically. The company recently landed a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange which may give it the financial and institutional backing to expand more aggressively. The NHL already maintains similar brand licensing deals with DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. But this is the first time it has extended such access to prediction markets, signaling a shift in how professional sports leagues view the broader event derivatives space. Since the deal, shares of Flutter Entertainment — the parent company of FanDuel — have fallen sharply. DraftKings stock has also dipped, reflecting investor concerns that prediction markets could cut into sportsbook market share, especially if they remain accessible in otherwise closed markets. Prediction markets have seen renewed momentum in recent months, driven in part by interest in political contracts ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have drawn thousands of…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Sports Betting Giant Ventures Into Crypto Predictions Market

Sports Betting Giant Ventures Into Crypto Predictions Market

The post Sports Betting Giant Ventures Into Crypto Predictions Market appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. DraftKings acquired Railbird, a CFTC-licensed exchange, to build its own prediction market. Polymarket is apparently partnering to operate as the clearinghouse of this new service. So far, this announcement hasn’t caused much friction between traditional gambling and risky Web3 betting. Still, experts are raising concerns about dangerous fallout for the economy and society itself. DraftKings to Launch Prediction Market Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have had a lot of recent success moving into the world of sports gambling, and other Web3 firms like Robinhood have been doing the same. It’s only natural, then, that the process would happen in reverse, as DraftKings is launching a prediction market. Sponsored Sponsored DraftKings, a popular sports gambling app, was exploring Web3 four years ago, so a prediction market seems like a logical next step. According to the firm’s press release, it acquired Railbird, a CFTC-licensed exchange, to make it happen. Railbird’s team and infrastructure will help get this new market operational. Polymarket Salutes New Deal At first glance, it seems like established Web3-native prediction markets might disapprove of DraftKings’ new play, especially because sports gambling is so lucrative. However, this sector is already a proving ground for interactions between TradFi and crypto. Moreover, this new expansion comes with at least one explicit partnership. Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, praised the Railbird deal, claiming that his own company will serve as DraftKings’ clearinghouse for its new prediction market: Congrats to @DraftKings on their acquisition of @RailbirdHQ. We’re proud for Polymarket Clearing to be their designated clearinghouse as they enter the prediction market space. — Shayne Coplan 🦅 (@shayne_coplan) October 22, 2025 Plus, Polymarket has been expanding recently, with massive institutional inflows powering new product offerings in several areas. The prediction market doesn’t have a strong reason to begrudge DraftKings’ own expansion, especially since…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
DraftKings partners with Polymarket Clearing as it enters prediction markets

DraftKings partners with Polymarket Clearing as it enters prediction markets

The post DraftKings partners with Polymarket Clearing as it enters prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Polymarket acts as DraftKings’ clearinghouse as it expands into prediction markets. DraftKings acquired Railbird to launch its own prediction market offerings beyond sports, covering finance, culture, and entertainment. DraftKings, a sports betting company, has partnered with Polymarket, a prediction market platform, as it enters the prediction markets space. DraftKings acquired Railbird to launch its own prediction markets focused on finance, culture, and entertainment events. The company is positioning itself to compete with established players like Polymarket in non-sports event trading. Polymarket was recently greenlit by the CFTC for US operations. The platform has formed strategic partnerships with major entities, including becoming X’s official prediction market partner to integrate real-time forecasting into user discussions. The prediction market platform has also partnered with the NHL for official branding in sports-related forecasting and formed alliances with platforms like Stocktwits to embed real-time event probabilities directly into community conversations. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/draftkings-polymarket-prediction-markets-partnership/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
NHL Taps Polymarket and Kalshi as Official Prediction Market Partners

NHL Taps Polymarket and Kalshi as Official Prediction Market Partners

The post NHL Taps Polymarket and Kalshi as Official Prediction Market Partners appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The National Hockey League (NHL) said it has inked landmark multiyear U.S. partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi on Wednesday, naming the two prediction market platforms as its official partners in a move that bridges professional sports and event-based trading. Prediction Markets Hit the Ice: NHL Seals Deal With Polymarket and Kalshi The agreements grant Polymarket […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/nhl-taps-polymarket-and-kalshi-as-official-prediction-market-partners/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
World Expands Into Prediction Markets With Polymarket

World Expands Into Prediction Markets With Polymarket

The post World Expands Into Prediction Markets With Polymarket appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This integration allows users to bet on global events using USDC or its native WLD token. The partnership is part of World’s push beyond identity verification into decentralized applications, and it follows a milestone of 100 million Mini App downloads. At the same time, Jupiter, the Solana-based decentralized exchange, launched its own prediction market focused on the upcoming Formula One Mexico Grand Prix. Powered by Kalshi, the initiative combines regulatory credibility and on-chain efficiency to deliver a fast, transparent, and engaging trading experience. With prediction markets hitting record volumes above $2 billion in weekly trades, driven by platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, these integrations show how decentralized ecosystems are changing into vibrant hubs where finance, entertainment, and real-world events intersect. World App Adds Polymarket World, the digital identity project that was founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, is moving into prediction markets through a new integration with Polymarket. The partnership was announced on Tuesday, and it brings Polymarket’s betting functionality directly to the World App. This allows users to place wagers on global events using Circle’s USDC stablecoin or World’s native WLD token. Announcement from World According to the announcement, the Polymarket Mini App is now available in the World App in countries where the service is permitted. Users in restricted areas, including New York state, will not have access to WLD due to regulatory limitations around token distribution. The company clarified that “World Assets and World Foundation are not responsible for the availability of WLD on third-party platforms.” The move is part of World’s growing ambition to expand beyond its original digital identity vision and into broader decentralized applications. It also follows a big milestone earlier this month when the company surpassed 100 million Mini App downloads.  The Mini App ecosystem was launched in October of 2024, and it…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets Are Flashing A Signal

Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets Are Flashing A Signal

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets Are Flashing A Signal appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets have become an emerging tool for gauging sentiment and price expectations in real time. Traders on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi wager on Bitcoin’s future price outcomes, producing aggregated odds that reflect where market participants believe BTC is heading. As trading volumes expand and odds shift with volatility, these prediction markets are gaining credibility as a forward-looking sentiment gauge for the Bitcoin economy. Extracting Bitcoin Price Alpha In early October, traders on Polymarket were betting that BTC would close 2025 around $144,000, but as volatility picked up and BTC dipped, that forecast has since slipped closer to $129,000. These odds update in real time, meaning they reflect the collective positioning and sentiment of thousands of participants and millions of dollars. By tracking the ratio between BTC’s spot price and the predicted year-end price, clear sentiment trends begin to emerge. When this ratio spikes, meaning the spot price trades well below the market’s forecast, it often reflects a period of excessive fear or undervaluation. Conversely, when BTC trades close to the predicted price, the market tends to be overheated and nearer to local peaks. Normalizing this data to account for how prediction volatility narrows as the year progresses gives an even clearer signal. The top percentile of days, where the ratio shows the widest gap between prediction and spot, has historically aligned with market lows, and vice-versa for the lowest percentile of days aligning with local highs. Comparing Bitcoin Price Prediction Accuracy Despite the impressive 91% accuracy figure often cited by Polymarket, deeper analysis shows that this number is inflated by markets with extreme odds — scenarios like “Bitcoin to hit $250,000 by year-end,” which overwhelmingly resolve to “no.” Removing these outliers gives a more realistic accuracy rate closer to 71% for BTC-related prediction markets, still…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Jupiter DEX Kalshi-Powered Prediction Market for F1 Mexico Grand Prix Winner

Jupiter DEX Kalshi-Powered Prediction Market for F1 Mexico Grand Prix Winner

The post Jupiter DEX Kalshi-Powered Prediction Market for F1 Mexico Grand Prix Winner appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jupiter, a Solana-based decentralized exchange (DEX), started a prediction market with the inaugural event tied to the outcome of the forthcoming Formual One Mexico Grand Prix. The platform, powered by Kalshi, a leader in event-driven trading, invites fans and traders to speculate on whether their preferred driver, including Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, George Russell or others will claim victory. The race will take place on Oct. 27, starting at 19:00 UTC and will comprise 71 laps. The Kalshi backing is crucial because it brings established liquidity and regulatory compliance to the market, enhancing trust and stability for users. This could transform how users engage with real-world events by offering fast, low-cost, and transparent betting. The prediction market industry has seen rapid growth as it combines elements of finance, gaming and social engagement, allowing users to speculate on real-world events with transparency and liquidity. According to Dune Analytics, leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket together recently registered a record weekly trading volume of over $2 billion. Market participants can buy and sell “yes” and “no” shares on a variety of choices tied to the Grand Prix winner. Prices of these shares are determined by demand and supply, with traders retaining the flexibility to exit positions at any time before the end of the betting contract. At the conclusion of the event, winning positions pay out $1 each, while bets that turned out to be wrong expire worthless. As a beta offering, Jupiter has implemented initial trading limits to ensure market stability, including a global maximum of 100,000 contracts and a maximum of 1,000 contracts per individual position. Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/22/solana-based-jupiter-dex-kalshi-powered-prediction-market-for-f1-mexico-grand-prix-winner

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Solana’s Jupiter Could Offer Native Prediction Market Powered by Kalshi Data, Beta Focused on Mexico Grand Prix Winner

Solana’s Jupiter Could Offer Native Prediction Market Powered by Kalshi Data, Beta Focused on Mexico Grand Prix Winner

The post Solana’s Jupiter Could Offer Native Prediction Market Powered by Kalshi Data, Beta Focused on Mexico Grand Prix Winner appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 💹 Trade with pro tools Fast execution, robust charts, clean risk controls. 👉 Open account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 🚀 Smooth orders, clear control Advanced order types and market depth in one view. 👉 Create account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 📈 Clarity in volatile markets Plan entries & exits, manage positions with discipline. 👉 Sign up → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup ⚡ Speed, depth, reliability Execute confidently when timing matters. 👉 Open account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 🧭 A focused workflow for traders Alerts, watchlists, and a repeatable process. 👉 Get started → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup ✅ Data‑driven decisions Focus on process—not noise. 👉 Sign up → Jupiter is launching a native prediction market on Solana powered by Kalshi data, enabling yes/no bets on real-world events with on-chain settlement. Prices update in real time, and resolutions occur on-chain after events conclude, expanding Jupiter beyond swaps and liquidity aggregation for retail traders. Native prediction markets on Solana powered by Kalshi data: Jupiter integrates real-world event resolution with on-chain trading, bringing transparent pricing and liquidity to the new product). Beta launch focused on sports events: The initial market tests the Mexico Grand Prix winner with yes/no tokens and live price discovery. Market momentum driven by micro-betting trends: Industry data suggests growing retail interest and potential revenue growth into 2025 and 2026, supported by on-chain reporting and data liquidity. description: Jupiter launches a native prediction market on Solana powered by Kalshi data, delivering real-time on-chain bets with transparent resolutions—read the update now. COINOTAG recommends • Professional traders group 💎 Join a professional trading community Work with senior traders, research‑backed setups, and risk‑first frameworks. 👉 Join the group → COINOTAG recommends • Professional traders group 📊 Transparent performance, real process…

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