Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Is Now Cheaper Than the S&P 500 — Here’s Why That Matters

TLDR

• NVDA is down 8.2% year-to-date and hit its lowest closing price since mid-December on Thursday
• The stock now trades at a forward P/E of 19.7x — a discount to the S&P 500’s 20.3x, the first time in 13 years
• Wolfe Research reiterated an Outperform rating and $275 price target following Nvidia’s GTC announcement of Rubin Ultra “Pods”
• CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia may need to produce around 200 pods per week — which Wolfe Research calculates would equal roughly $120 billion per month in revenue
• NVDA remains the most popular individual stock purchase among retail investors, per J.P. Morgan data

Nvidia (NVDA) closed Thursday at $109.02, its lowest level since mid-December, as the stock continues to struggle under broader selling pressure on AI-related names.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

NVDA was trading up 0.3% in premarket Friday following the Thursday decline.

The stock is now down 8.2% for the year heading into Friday’s session.

The selloff has pushed Nvidia’s valuation to a level that, by one measure, is actually cheaper than the broader market. The stock now trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7 times, according to FactSet. That puts it at a discount to the S&P 500’s average of 20.3 times.

That’s a notable shift. Nvidia had traded at a premium to the S&P 500 on a forward P/E basis for 13 straight years — from February 2013 until late February this year, per Dow Jones Market Data.

The streak broke on February 28, when the Iran conflict began weighing on market sentiment. Since then, Nvidia has dipped in and out of discount territory relative to the index.

Retail Investors Still Buying

Despite the price weakness, demand for NVDA hasn’t disappeared. Nvidia remained the most purchased individual stock among retail investors for the week ending March 25, according to J.P. Morgan’s retail trading report.

Barron’s Roundtable investment professionals also gave the stock unanimous positive opinions.

Broadcom (AVGO) fell 0.9% in premarket Friday, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was also down 0.9%.

Wolfe Research Backs Rubin Ultra Pod Opportunity

Wolfe Research kept its Outperform rating and $275 price target on NVDA this week, citing Nvidia’s GTC conference announcement of Rubin Ultra “Pods” — a reference design for agentic AI datacenters.

Wolfe estimates $150 million in Nvidia content per pod. Roughly two-thirds of that is tied to VR200 racks, with Groq representing the largest slice of incremental revenue.

The firm also flagged that new add-ons including CPU, storage, and Groq could represent a 50% revenue increase on top of VR compute racks alone. Groq LPX racks add a further 25% incremental opportunity to the VR200 baseline, offering low-latency inference for premium service tiers.

During a recent Lex Fridman podcast appearance, CEO Jensen Huang said the company may need to produce “about 200 of these per week, just for context.” Wolfe Research ran the math: 200 pods weekly works out to roughly $120 billion per month in potential revenue — compared to current 2027 consensus estimates of $482 billion annually.

Rosenblatt maintained a Buy rating with a $325 target, citing visibility to over $1 trillion in orders for Blackwell and Rubin platforms through 2027. Cantor Fitzgerald also held an Overweight rating at $300 following Nvidia’s GTC conference. InvestingPro data shows 31 analysts have revised earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period, with targets reaching as high as $380.

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