Copper rebounded about 2% after Friday’s sharp drop
Copper jumped by about 2%, reversing the sharp fall from Friday as traders shifted back to the idea that the market may tighten in 2026.
Prices on the London Metal Exchange hit $11,656.50 per ton during midday trading in Shanghai after the metal had crashed by 3% in the previous session. That drop came when tech stocks linked to artificial intelligence collapsed on Wall Street and dragged the whole demand outlook with them.
The rebound today came fast, and it landed with force, as the metal had just touched a record near $12,000 per ton before the selloff hit. Zinc gained 1.1%, and aluminum added 0.4%.
Analysts warn of supply gaps and rising demand
Copper has climbed more than 30% this year. Mine problems cut supply, and traders have been moving huge shipments into the United States ahead of possible tariffs under President Donald Trump’s 2025 trade posture.
Investment in green energy and power grids has built expectations for stronger long-term demand. Citi analysts said the metal may face major shortages because of tight mine supply and continued “hoarding” inside the United States.
Citi said, “We expect the U.S. to hoard global copper inventory and, in a bull case, draw further on depleted ex-U.S. stock,” adding that prices may hit $13,000 per ton in early 2026 and even $15,000 by the second quarter next year.
Avatar Commodities CEO Andrew Glass said the setup points to “stratospheric new highs,” driven by U.S. stockpiling that is reducing supply outside the country.
Glass said the rally reflects a “highly irregular distortion” fueled mainly by tariff concerns, not regular supply-and-demand flows, and added that Chinese demand has stayed weak. ING strategist Ewa Manthey said prices could reach $12,000 per ton next year and warned that higher prices will hit margins in energy-heavy industries.
Spot prices hit $11,816 per ton on Friday, while 3-month LME futures closed at $11,515, lifting global benchmarks by about 36% this year and 9% over the past month.
Tariffs drive U.S. inflows and drain global stocks
Copper‘s rally has been mostly triggered by global concerns that Trump will add duties on refined Copper imports from 2027, so now buyers are rushing shipments into the U.S. Data from StoneX showed U.S. inflows jumping by roughly 650,000 tons this year, lifting inventories to about 750,000 tons.
On the LME, copper last traded around $11,515 per ton for 3-month delivery, while COMEX March futures were around $11,814, creating strong arbitrage incentives. That pull has drained stock from the LME, which acts as a market of last resort.
Inventory data showed copper stocks at roughly 165,000 tons, with about 66,650 tons, around 40%, locked in canceled warrants, meaning that metal is set aside for delivery and not available to the open market. LME stocks are down nearly 40% from the start of the year.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank called 2025 “a heavily disrupted year,” thanks to major miners cutting output targets. Updated guidance from large producers reduced expected 2026 supply by about 300,000 tons. The bank said the market will sit in deficit, with the tightest period expected in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
Glencore lowered its 2026 production outlook to 810,000–870,000 tons because of reduced sourcing from the Collahuasi mine, which it owns with Anglo American. Rio Tinto told Reuters that next year’s output may fall to 800,000–870,000 tons, below this year’s 860,000-875,000 tons target.
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