What Does the Short-Term Outlook for Bitcoin Look Like? Experts Weigh In

The cryptocurrency analysis platform Glassnode revealed in its latest report that the struggle between bulls and bears in the Bitcoin market has intensified significantly.

According to the report, while buying interest remains strong, a cautious atmosphere has begun to prevail across the market.

The negative turn in cumulative volume delta (CVD) data in the spot market indicates increased selling pressure and strengthening downward expectations. Despite this, high trading volumes on centralized exchanges show that market participation remains strong. This suggests that while there is pressure on prices, liquidity has not been completely withdrawn.

In the futures market, the increase in open positions indicates a rise in investor risk appetite, while the funding rate for long positions has significantly decreased. Furthermore, the sharp decline in CVD (Current Value Added Tax) in futures contracts suggests that investors are becoming more willing to open short positions, indicating weakening buyer power. These data reveal a strengthening bearish outlook in the futures markets.

The decrease in demand for downside hedging in the options market may have somewhat mitigated negative expectations in the short term. However, the narrowing of open positions suggests that investors are engaging in profit-taking, which could affect volatility in the coming period. The narrowing of volatility spreads indicates that the market is shifting from a risk-pricing approach to a more neutral one.

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On the other hand, ETFs stand out as one of the strongest supporting factors in the market. Increased net inflows and rising MVRV ratios in US spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate continued investor interest and increasing profitability. Rising trading volumes also reveal that investors are becoming more willing to access Bitcoin through regulated financial instruments.

On the liquidity side, the decrease in “hot money” and the narrowing of negative changes in realized market value indicate that longer-term investors are gaining weight in the market. The balanced distribution of supply between short-term and long-term investors, and the continued confidence of long-term investors, suggest that the fundamental structure of the market remains strong.

Overall, despite increasing selling pressure, the market is attempting to remain balanced thanks to ETF inflows and long-term investor support, but a cautious outlook prevails in the short term.

*This is not investment advice.

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