Bitcoin Faces $10K Downside Warning as Oil Surge Rattles Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to around US$66,000 (AU$95,700) on April 2 after U.S. military action disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices above US$100 (AU$145) per barrel and triggering a broad risk-off move across markets.

BTC traded at US$66,915 (AU$97,000), down 1.76% on the day. Ether dropped 4.5% and Solana fell 5.1%. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 rose to 0.75, showing it was moving in line with equities rather than acting as a defensive asset.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs Snap Outflow Streak with $1.3B Inflows in March

Oil Shock and the Hormuz Choke Point

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies pass, saw ship traffic decline by 90 to 95% after the conflict began. 

Crude prices ranged between US$103 and US$114 (AU$147 to AU$165) per barrel across benchmarks and intraday sessions, while US retail gasoline crossed US$4 per gallon for the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

President Trump’s April 2 address offered no commitment to de-escalate, with the president stating the conflict could last “another two to three weeks.” 

Moreover, the Kobeissi Letter projected that sustained elevated oil would push US inflation to 3.6%, the highest since September 2023. Adam Kobeissi stated:

Just as oil and bond markets had calmed down, President Trump has sent oil prices soaring again. US oil prices have now risen over +$1/hour since President Trump’s speech at 9 PM ET. It began with Iran’s President stating they have “no enmity” towards Americans and ended with President Trump escalating the Iran War, the exact opposite of what we have seen over the last 2 weeks from both sides. It simply does not add up.

Adam Kobeissi, founder of The Kobeissi Letter.

Bloomberg’s $10,000 Target

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone flagged Bitcoin’s pre-bull-run baseline as the reference point for his warning. 

Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020–21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting,

Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink flagged a further risk, noting oil could reach US$150 (AU$230) per barrel and trigger a global recession if Iran’s threat to the Strait persists once the conflict ends, according to Fortune. 

Going back to crypto, well, liquidations exceeded US$400 million (AU$578 million) in 24 hours, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 2% and the S&P 500 also declining. 

For retail crypto investors, BTC’s high equity correlation means macro shocks transmit directly into digital asset prices, and a prolonged oil shock could make McGlone’s US$10,000 floor the defining risk benchmark for 2026.

Read more: Bitcoin Treasury Sell-Off Sparks Fears of Crypto Contagion

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