Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH plunges below $4,200 as investors brace for Powell's speech

2025/08/20 04:15
  • Ethereum investors are expecting increased volatility in the short term as Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole approaches.
  • A record high in validator queue exits and sustained ETH ETF outflows could also weigh on market sentiment.
  • ETH tested the $4,100 support on Tuesday after its technical indicators hinted at a bearish outlook.

Ethereum extended its decline by 5% on Tuesday, breaching the $4,200 level following a rise in short-term volatility, validator queue exits and institutional outflows. The cautious sentiment shows traders continue to de-risk ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday.

Ethereum investors brace for volatility as Powell's speech draws closer

Ethereum dropped below $4,200 on Tuesday, stretching its decline to over 10% since the US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data for July rocked the market last Thursday. During the period, Ethereum has seen long liquidations of over $1.1 billion, per CryptoQuant's data, a demonstration of de-risking ahead of Powell's speech on Friday.

"Traders are bracing for a volatile end to August, with all eyes on Jackson Hole," noted Nick Forster, founder of crypto options platform Derive, in a Tuesday note.

He highlighted that near-term (7-day) ETH implied volatility (IV) on Derive rose from 68% to 73% on Monday, while that of the 30-day IV remains fairly muted. "[It's a] sign that markets expect heightened volatility in the immediate term," Forster added.

ETH 7-day IV (Red) vs 30-day IV (Blue). Source: Derive, Amberdata

The higher-than-expected inflation data last week sent market participants' expectations of a rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September plunging below 90% and falling to 82% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. While investors still lean toward a rate cut, the drop signifies cautious sentiment is gradually setting in.

"If Powell signals a continued hawkish stance, we could see a rapid correction in digital assets, particularly for BTC and ETH," said Forster. On the other hand, a dovish stance could lift the market. The probability of ETH declining to $4,000 by the end of September has spiked from 45% to 60% on Derive, he added.

A similar sentiment is evident on-chain, where Ethereum's validator exit queue has surged to a record high of 927,000 ETH, per data from Validatorqueue.com. Validator exit queue shows the number of coins waiting to leave transaction validation responsibilities. While some of these coins may not go toward profit-taking, high exits during a price correction often negatively affect market sentiment.

Meanwhile, US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered net outflows of $196.6 million on Monday — its second largest since launching last July, per SoSoValue data.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH technical indicators on verge of flipping bearish

Ethereum is testing the $4,100 support after declining below the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), marking a sharp turnaround from its uptrend over a week ago.

ETH/USDT daily chart

If ETH declines below $4,100, it could find support at the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level near $4,000, just above a key descending trendline. A failure to hold the $4,000 psychological level and the descending trendline could send ETH toward $3,500.

However, a bounce off these support levels could see ETH tackle the $4,500 resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) are on the verge of declining below their neutral levels, a move that could accelerate bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also highlights a potential trend shift toward the bearish side, after crossing below its signal line, with its histogram bars flipping to red.

A daily candlestick above $4,500 will invalidate the bearish outlook and potentially send ETH to test its all-time high resistance at $4,868.


Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.
Share Insights

You May Also Like

Russian Crypto Mining Chief: Bitcoin Could Hit $130k Before Summer Is Out

Russian Crypto Mining Chief: Bitcoin Could Hit $130k Before Summer Is Out

A Russian crypto mining firm executive has claimed Bitcoin (BTC) prices could climb to the $130k mark in the second half of summer 2025. The claims came from Vasily Girya, the owner and CEO of the industrial player GIS Mining, the Russian Prime news agency reported. Girya said: “The crypto industry remains attractive to market players. In a moderately positive scenario, the price of Bitcoin in the second half of summer could reach an all-time high of $115,000. It could target $130k”. Bitcoin: $130k By End of Summer? At the time of writing, Bitcoin prices are wavering around the $105k mark following a brief foray into $111,000 territory in mid May. GIS Mining is one of Russia’s top 10 industrial miners, and mainly specializes in mobile units and mining hotel facilities. Per recent figures, the company’s mining capacity for Financial Year 2024 was 53 MW. Inside a GIS Mining data center. (Source: GIS Mining/YouTube/Screenshot) The country’s 10 biggest mining firms posted a collective total of $200 million in revenue in FY2024. Over half of this revenue came from the nation’s two biggest miners: BitRiver and Intelion . Girya explained that the Russian mining sector is set for another burst of growth this year. He said that the sector was experiencing “record-breaking” demand for new crypto mining data centers with a capacity of up to 100 MW. The mining chief added that demand for equipment capable of “energy-intensive blockchain computing” was also skyrocketing. Insiders say that in the first half of 2025, demand for crypto mining hardware outstripped supply. They claim that since Moscow legalized and began regulating crypto mining in 2024, more investors have entered the market. The ruble’s rise against the dollar this year has also made crypto mining investment more viable for many. RUB-USD prices over the past year. (Source: Google Finance) Sandbox ‘Driving Russian Mining Investment’ Girya added that over the next two to three years, more of the coins mined in Russian jurisdiction will be used in the national economy. He pointed to the Central Bank-run “experimental legal regime (ELR)” as evidence. The ELR is a crypto sandbox comprising exchange firms, cross-border trade companies, and Bitcoin miners. The bank is using the ELR as a means of bypassing US, EU, and UK-led sanctions on Russia. The sanctions have effectively frozen Russian firms and banks out of dollar-denominated trade. US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites have shown the limits of Russia’s ability to defend its allies. It might yet be to Putin’s advantage https://t.co/CPVjHmgLt4 — Bloomberg (@business) June 23, 2025 Central Bank officials want crypto miners to sell their coins to exchanges within the sandbox. These exchanges can then use their coins to facilitate cross-border trades conducted in BTC or other tokens. Girya called the ELR a “powerful step toward the institutionalization of the crypto and digital currencies market.” He said that it would help “increase the inflow of investments into this new class of assets.” More Coal-powered Bitcoin Miners Heading to Siberia? Meanwhile, the authorities in the Kuznetsk Basin, a major coal-mining region in Southwestern Siberia, have proposed a Bitcoin mining -themed solution to the problem of coal depreciation. The news outlet Tsargrad’s Kemerovo Oblast branch reported that the region’s government is mulling a proposal to build crypto farms and greenhouse complexes near its coal mines. U.S. investor and entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano announced on Monday the creation of a new bitcoin treasury company that would hold up to $1 billion of the world's largest cryptocurrency on its balance sheet. https://t.co/Gc30pO8Qkr — Reuters Legal (@ReutersLegal) June 23, 2025 The region’s Governor, Ilya Seredyuk, said the area’s coal could “be used to generate the energy needed to mine Bitcoin and other cryptoassets.” Seredyuk said tests are now underway as miners conduct economic calculations to determine the profitability of the plan. He said the results would be published in around a month’s time. The Governor said the BTC mining plan could help reverse a recent decline in coal mining. He also suggested that the heat released by burning coal could be used to heat greenhouses that house tropical plants – in one of the world’s most famously cold areas. He mused: “Why not create a large botanical garden and cultivate plants that require warmth?” Earlier this month, a Russian power firm announced the launch of the nation’s first bitcoin mining-focused closed-end mutual investment fund (CEF) .
Share
CryptoNews2025/06/25 07:30
Share
Ethereum-Based Project Pepeto Surpasses $6.3M in Presale as Ecosystem Development Advances

Ethereum-Based Project Pepeto Surpasses $6.3M in Presale as Ecosystem Development Advances

Ethereum-Based Project Pepeto Surpasses $6.3M in Presale as Ecosystem Development Advances
Share
Cryptodaily2025/08/20 15:24
Share