For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, the amount of BTC held dormant for a decade or more is now growing faster than the network is producing new coins. This shift, which began shortly after the April 2024 halving, marks…For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, the amount of BTC held dormant for a decade or more is now growing faster than the network is producing new coins. This shift, which began shortly after the April 2024 halving, marks…
Analysis: Bitcoin’s dormant supply growth outpaces new issuance for the first time in history
2025/06/19 15:22
For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, the amount of BTC held dormant for a decade or more is now growing faster than the network is producing new coins.
This shift, which began shortly after the April 2024 halving, marks a critical turning point in Bitcoin’s (BTC) supply dynamics, according to a June 18 report by Fidelity Digital Assets. As of June 8, an average of 566 BTC per day is crossing into the “ancient supply” category, meaning the coins have not moved in 10 years or more.
That figure now exceeds the network’s post-halving daily issuance rate of 450 BTC. Fidelity’s analysis stresses how the growing influence of long-term holders is redefining Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative in real-time.
Dormant coins are often interpreted as a sign of conviction, or in some cases, permanent loss due to inaccessible private keys. Regardless of motive, the numbers are significant.
Over 3.4 million BTC, more than 17% of the total supply, have not moved in at least a decade. That figure includes coins mined in Bitcoin’s early years, with Satoshi Nakamoto considered the first 10-year holder as of January 2019.
This trend is more than symbolic. Fidelity notes that fewer than 3% of days since 2019 have seen a decline in ancient supply, while the portion of coins held for five years or more is also decreasing far less often than it rises.
At the same time, public companies are increasingly contributing to this long-term cohort. As of June 8, 27 listed firms held more than 800,000 BTC combined. Projections suggest ancient supply could account for 30% of all Bitcoin in circulation by 2035 if this pattern holds.
Still, high conviction isn’t absolute. Since the 2024 U.S. election, the report notes that ancient supply has fallen day-to-day 10% of the time, about four times the historical average. For holders of five years or more, that volatility is even higher, with 39% of days showing net outflows.
These movements partly explain the choppy price action in early 2025 and serve as a reminder that even long-term holders can be shaken in uncertain markets. Fidelity emphasizes that scarcity is not the only factor influencing price.
However, when issuance is decreasing and long-term supply is tightening, there is a greater chance of upward price pressure, especially if institutional and new ETF product demand picks up speed.
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Why Is Crypto Down Today? – October 30, 2025
The crypto market is down today, with the total cryptocurrency market capitalization falling by 3.0% to $3.78 trillion, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Meanwhile, the 24-hour trading volume sits at $192 billion, reflecting reduced activity as major cryptocurrencies turn red.
TLDR:
The global crypto market cap fell 3.0% to $3.78T;
8 of the top 10 coins and most majors in the red;
BTC dropped 3.5% to $109,373, while ETH slid 3.6% to $3,868;
The Fed’s 25 bps rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening in December signal returning liquidity;
Fear & Greed Index fell to 34 (Fear);
BTC ETFs saw $470.7M outflows;
ETH ETFs posted $81.44M outflows;
AUSTRAC fined CryptoLink A$56,340 (US$37,085) for AML compliance failures.
Crypto Winners & Losers
At the time of writing, 8 of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have declined over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3.5%, now trading at $109,373, maintaining a market cap of over $2.18 trillion.
Ethereum (ETH) slipped 3.6% to $3,868, while BNB (BNB) dropped 0.5% to $1,107.
XRP (XRP) recorded a 4.4% decline to $2.54, and Solana (SOL) lost 3.9%, now priced at $190.92.
The biggest drop among the top 10 came from Dogecoin (DOGE), which fell 4.4% to $0.1872.
Despite the broader downturn, a few altcoins posted impressive gains. Aurora (AURORA) surged 65.1% to $0.08555, while Jelly-My-Jelly (JMJ) and Anvil (ANVL) rose 50.6% and 44.0%, respectively.
In contrast, PepeNode (PNODE) and BlockchainFX (BFX) topped the list of trending tokens despite declines of 19.7% and 5.7%, showing strong retail interest amid market volatility.
Meanwhile, Swiss-based asset manager 21Shares has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a Hyperliquid (HYPE) exchange-traded fund (ETF) amid growing institutional appetite for altcoin-linked investment products.
The move came just weeks after Bitwise filed for a similar Hyperliquid ETF, underscoring intensifying competition among asset managers to capture investor demand for exposure to decentralized trading ecosystems.
The HYPE token powers Hyperliquid’s decentralized exchange, offering users fee discounts and serving as the gas token for its blockchain.
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However, the real market mover was the Fed’s confirmation that quantitative tightening (QT) will end in December, signaling the return of liquidity that could fuel risk assets. Analysts say this could set the stage for an “alt season,” though past patterns show such optimism often fades quickly.
In 2024, the first rate cut triggered a strong rally, but it fizzled by September, only to be reignited by Trump’s election victory later that year.
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At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $109,295, down 0.68% on the day. The coin has been consolidating after failing to sustain momentum above $112,000 earlier this week. For now, BTC’s intraday range sits between $108,800 and $110,200, suggesting a cautious market tone.
A breakout above $111,800 could trigger a move toward $114,500 and potentially $118,000, where previous resistance zones lie. On the downside, failure to hold current support could open the door to $107,500, followed by a stronger support area around $105,000.
Meanwhile, Ethereum trades at $3,865, down 0.99% in the past 24 hours. The coin has been hovering near the $3,850–$3,900 zone after slipping from its weekly high near $4,100.
If ETH breaks above $3,950, it could attempt to retest $4,200 and then $4,400, where selling pressure has repeatedly capped rallies. However, a drop below $3,800 may lead to a deeper pullback toward $3,650–$3,700 in the short term.
Meanwhile, market sentiment has tilted slightly more bearish, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index falling to 34, signaling “Fear.”
The index was at 39 yesterday and 43 a month ago, indicating a steady decline in confidence as traders remain cautious amid price volatility. The shift reflects ongoing uncertainty in the market, with participants holding back from aggressive positions while awaiting clearer signals from macroeconomic developments.
The US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a sharp reversal on Wednesday, recording $470.7 million in outflows, according to data from SoSoValue.
The total cumulative net inflow now stands at $61.87 billion, with total net assets valued at $149.98 billion, representing 6.75% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
Among the funds, Fidelity’s FBTC led the outflows with $164.36 million, followed by Ark & 21Shares (ARKB) with $143.8 million, and BlackRock’s IBIT with $88.08 million. Grayscale’s GBTC also saw $65.01 million leave the fund.
The US Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded $81.44 million in outflows on Wednesday. The total cumulative net inflow now stands at $14.65 billion, while total net assets are valued at $26.60 billion, representing 5.58% of Ethereum’s market capitalization.
Among the nine ETFs, BlackRock’s ETHA was the only major fund to post gains, taking in $21.36 million. In contrast, Fidelity’s FETH saw the largest outflow at $69.49 million, followed by Grayscale’s ETHE with $12.83 million and Grayscale’s ETH with $16.18 million.
In contrast, the US Solana spot ETFs recorded $47.94 million in net inflows on Wednesday. The total cumulative net inflow now stands at $117.40 million, with total net assets reaching $432.29 million, representing 0.40% of Solana’s market capitalization.
Among the two listed ETFs, Bitwise’s BSOL led with $46.54 million in inflows, while Grayscale’s GSOL added $1.40 million. Total trading volume across both funds was $79.50 million for the day.
Meanwhile, Australian financial intelligence agency, AUSTRAC, slapped a AU$56,340 fine (US$37,085) on crypto ATM operator CryptoLink on Thursday.
The action comes after the regulator’s Crypto Taskforce, established last year, found late reporting of large cash transactions and “weaknesses” in CryptoLink’s AML rules
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