Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum options with a notional value totaling $1.97 billion expire today.
PANews reported on March 20th that Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on the X platform that 23,000 BTC options expired on March 20th, with a put-call ratio of 0.88, a maximum resistance level of $70,000, and a notional value of $1.6 billion. 176,000 ETH options expired, with a put-call ratio of 1.04, a maximum resistance level of $2,150, and a notional value of $370 million. This marks the end of the current rally in the crypto market. Bitcoin briefly fell below the $70,000 mark. The $75,000 level has been frequently mentioned as a key resistance level in the past week, with 5% of options accumulating at this price at the end of the month. Ultimately, the attempt to break through failed, and Bitcoin fell back to around $70,000.
Next Friday is the quarterly settlement date. Looking at the options market data, $75,000 is the price with the most concentrated open interest and represents a significant resistance level. Below that, $65,000, $62,000, and $60,000 are all areas of high open interest and can be considered support levels for further declines. This week, the implied volatility (IV) and volatile interest (RV) of major term options remained largely unchanged. BTC's main term IV was at 50%, and ETH's main term IV was at 70%. The continued decline in RV led to a sustained increase in VRP. Only 5% of total open interest expired, continuing to hit new lows. Despite volatility, Bitcoin trading activity remained extremely low. Due to the price pullback, skew across the board declined, indicating the market remains in a bear market, and bullish forces are very fragile.
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