Crypto Market Braces for Volatility as BTC, ETH Options Expiry Coincides with $5.7T ‘Triple Witching’

Crypto market traders are bracing for heightened volatility and potential selloffs as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expiry coincide with Friday’s ‘Triple Witching’ event. What’s next for BTC price and the broader crypto market?

Over $2.1 Billion in BTC and ETH Options Expires Today

According to crypto derivatives exchange Deribit data, more than 24K BTC options of notional value $1.7 billion are set to expire today. Open interest volume is falling again after the US Fed expected rate cuts are unlikely amid rising inflation. Traders are adjusting positions to a decline in implied volatility, with a put/call ratio of 0.96.

Moreover, the max pain price is at $70,000 and the probability of expiring above the strike price is higher. However, traders have opened massive put options over the past 24 hours ahead of next week’s monthly options expiry, with a $75,000 max pain price.

In the last hours, put volume has surpassed call volume, pushing the put/call ratio bearish to 1.30. This comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows after a week, indicating dropping institutional interest. Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $90.2 million on Thursday.

“This is not a typical “buy the dip” environment, and those treating it like one risk getting stopped out repeatedly. Our models are signaling a shift, but also a critical inflection point where positioning, not prediction, will determine returns,” said 10x Research.

Meanwhile, 379K ETH options worth almost $380 million in notional value are expiring today. The put/call ratio is 1.02, indicating bearish sentiment among traders amid sudden price swings and a sharp drop in crypto market sentiment from 26 to 11 today.

The max pain point is $2150, in line with the current market price. Moreover, traders are targeting a rise in prices to $2,350, leading to crypto market options expiry on March 27.

In the last 24 hours, put volume has remained significantly higher than put volume. The put/call ratio is 1.12, suggesting caution among options traders.

Crypto Market Braces for ‘Triple Witching’ Event on Wall Street

According to a Bloomberg report, markets expect sharp moves amid the $5.7 trillion ‘triple witching’ event today. Triple Witching is a quarterly event where stock options, index options, and index futures expire simultaneously, often causing high volatility.

Notably, $4.1 trillion in index contracts, $772 billion in exchange-traded funds and $875 billion in single-stock options are set to expire today. Crypto stocks and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) could face selloffs today, as traders alter positions in response to the Fed projections.

The crypto market is under selloff pressure as the triple witching options expiry could lead to massive price swings. All eyes are on how both the crypto market and equity markets absorb the shock as the US-Iran war continues.

BTC price currently trades at $70,578 after the crypto market crash, risking further drop if price falls below the 50-day moving average at $69,840. The 24-hour low and high are $68,805 and $70,951, respectively. Trading volume has decreased by 5% over the past 24 hours.

The derivatives market showed slight buying in the last few hours, as per CoinGlass data. At the time of writing, the total BTC futures open interest jumped 0.83% to $48.60 in past 4 hours. The 4-hour BTC futures OI is up more than 0.70% on CME and 0.85% on Binance.

However, ETH futures open interest has tumbled more than 1% in the past 24 hours. The 4-hour ETH futures open interest on CME and Binance dropped more than 5% and 0.50%, respectively.