The Old Whales Aren’t Selling: What Bitcoin’s Plunging CDD Multiple Means for the Rally

Bitcoin briefly neared $76,000 on Tuesday, a level seen for the first time in six weeks, in spite of the global uncertainty as the conflict in the Middle East entered its third week.

Data from Alphractal shows that Bitcoin’s Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) Multiple has fallen to its lowest level since 2022. This indicates minimal movement of older units.

Veteran Holders Stay Put

Alphractal explained that the metric, which measures the intensity of Coin Days Destroyed relative to its historical average, normalizes current activity against a long-term baseline to assess whether long-term holders are spending at elevated or reduced rates.

Current readings suggest that older BTC remains largely dormant, which points to steady holding behavior among long-term investors.

According to the analysis, many of these holders previously distributed coins at higher price levels, leaving the present market dominated by relatively younger supply in circulation. The low CDD Multiple also implies limited selling pressure from mature holdings.

In previous cases, similar low levels in the metric have coincided with consolidation phases, where reduced activity from long-term holders precedes significant directional moves in the market.

Meanwhile, data from Santiment shows that Bitcoin’s recent move has been accompanied by a sharp rise in market optimism. The uptick has pushed FOMO to its highest level since January 2, as social media data from this week indicates a bullish-to-bearish comment ratio of 1.67 across platforms such as X, Reddit, and Telegram. The positive sentiment has outweighed the negative views.

Further data reveal Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery in buyer activity after heavy selling in February. Despite rising geopolitical tensions and expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, CryptoQuant found that BTC has remained relatively “resilient” compared to traditional assets like equities and commodities.

Buyer Dominance

Data from Binance and Coinbase indicate that trading volumes are gradually changing in favor of buyers. On February 16, the 30-day average volume delta was strongly negative, at -$145 million on Binance and -$88 million on Coinbase, reflecting broad selling by both retail and institutional investors. This has now turned positive, and reached about +$21 million and +$14 million, respectively.

While this is a clear improvement, analysts say that liquidity remains low, and the trend will need further confirmation to support upward price movement.

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