Key Insights
- Bitcoin apparent demand flipped back above zero.
- Retail price targets faded as fear persisted.
- CME gap dynamics returned to short-term focus.
Bitcoin demand turned positive after nearly three months of weakness, with apparent demand climbing to about +1,200 BTC, data shared by CryptosRus showed. The shift followed a prolonged distribution phase that began in December and weighed on price structure. Market participants tracked the metric closely because it reflects whether long-term holders absorb new supply.
The broader Bitcoin demand recovery unfolded as sentiment cooled and leveraged positioning thinned. That backdrop mattered because sustained negative demand had previously aligned with sideways price action and fading momentum. With Bitcoin now trading near 67,847 at publication, traders evaluated whether this structural shift marked early accumulation or a temporary bounce.
Apparent Demand Flips After Deep Distribution
CryptosRus cited on-chain data showing apparent demand bottomed near minus 154,000 BTC in December before gradually stabilizing. That trough coincided with persistent sell pressure and sluggish order book depth across major exchanges. As selling pressure eased, long-term holders began absorbing incremental supply again, pushing the metric back above zero.
Bitcoin apparent demand. Source: XThis shift occurred because fewer coins flowed from older wallets into liquid markets. Structural accumulation tends to rebuild gradually, not in a single session. While one positive print does not confirm a durable trend, historical cycles show demand inflections often precede broader price recovery phases.
Traders did not immediately chase upside exposure. Instead, they watched whether follow-through buying would confirm sustained absorption rather than short-term covering. The market remained cautious despite the metric’s improvement.
CME Gap Dynamics Reenter Focus
Killa noted that Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures closed at 67,800 before the weekend, creating potential for a price gap at the next open. Since 2022, roughly 96% of weekend gaps have filled within two weeks, with most resolving within three to four days. That historical tendency shaped short-term positioning across derivatives desks.
Source: XThe move followed a period of compressed volatility where traders avoided aggressive directional bets. If spot opened one to two thousand dollars above or below the futures close, market makers often targeted the gap level. However, Killa warned that the pattern could fade once futures transition to continuous trading, which would eliminate weekend dislocations.
Gap-filling behavior reflects structural inefficiencies rather than fundamental shifts. Still, short-term flows frequently react to these levels because liquidity clusters around them. As a result, derivatives activity could temporarily overshadow the improving demand backdrop.
Sentiment Cools As Network Activity Slows
Santiment reported that bullish calls for Bitcoin to reach between 150,000 and 200,000 dried up after earlier enthusiasm peaked. The platform described the drop in extreme optimism as a healthier setup because excessive retail exuberance often marks late-cycle conditions. Social sentiment shifted from extreme bearishness back toward neutral territory.
Source: SantimentThis moderation followed a 24.39% decline over the past 30 days, data from CoinMarketCap showed. Bitcoin previously reached 126,100 in October before entering a downtrend that carried into the new year. On Feb. 6, the asset traded near 60,000 before stabilizing into a range.
Santiment also observed declining transaction volume, fewer active addresses, and slower network growth. Those utility indicators suggested reduced participation rather than aggressive accumulation. While not outright bearish, lower on-chain engagement implied traders preferred waiting over initiating fresh risk.
Alternative.me’s Fear and Greed Index posted a score of 8 on Saturday, placing the market in extreme fear. That reading contrasted with the neutral tone observed across social channels. Divergence between sentiment metrics and network usage complicated directional conviction.
Bitcoin demand therefore improved against a backdrop of cooling retail expectations and muted activity. Structural absorption re-emerged, yet broader participation did not expand in tandem.
The next immediate test sits at the CME gap zone if spot reopens away from futures levels. Sustained apparent demand above zero over the coming sessions would matter more than a single data point. Traders now watch whether follow-through buying confirms transition from distribution toward renewed accumulation.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2026/02/21/bitcoin-demand-flips-positive-after-3-month-slump/
