Will Bitcoin Crash To $58k or Rally to $75k After Hot PCE Inflation Data?

Bitcoin reacted negatively yesterday, after the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released delayed December 2025 PCE inflation data. The report showed hotter-than-expected price pressures, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer rate stance. BTC price has since recovered and is trading at $68,212, up by 2% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin Options Data Flags $58K Risk and $75K Target

According to Glassnode data, dealers remain broadly short gamma between $70,000 and $58,000. This positioning could accelerate a move lower if Bitcoin breaks support. At the same time, a large gamma cluster near $75,000 shows traders are also positioning for a rebound. Glassnode noted that Bitcoin is continuing to consolidate below $70,000 in a tight range.

Therefore, options positioning now frames the $58,000 and $75,000 levels as key BTC price levels. At-the-money implied volatility has compressed to around 48% across maturities. Previously, volatility spiked during liquidation events.

However, lower implied volatility now shows traders no longer price an imminent crash. Glassnode’s DVOL index confirms that change. DVOL has dropped roughly 10 volatility points over the past two weeks. Stress pricing continues to unwind across the options market.

Earlier this month, the one-week volatility risk premium fell to negative 45 as realized volatility exceeded implied levels. Since then, implied volatility rose while realized volatility stabilized. As a result, short-term options now trade at a premium again.

Despite easing panic, skew remains heavy. The one-week 25-delta skew rebounded from near 7 volatility to about 14 volatility. This rebound shows traders still prioritize downside protection.

Last week, put activity accounted for roughly two-thirds of total options trades. Notably, puts bought represented 34% of the total flow. Dealers’ short gamma exposure below spot adds to fragility if prices fall.

Experts Highlight Supply Zones and $71K Barrier

Glassnode’s data outlines derivatives positioning. However, spot structure also influences the path between $58,000 and $75,000.

According to data from Nexo, Bitcoin is building a structure between $55,000 and about $79,200. The firm said the market is absorbing supply and realigning within that range. Moreover, lighter supply zones could allow smoother price discovery if demand returns.

Meanwhile, analyst Ted pointed to ongoing sideways movement. He linked the consolidation to uncertainty following a Supreme Court tariff decision. In addition, Ted said Garrett Bullish has been selling Bitcoin, limiting upside attempts.

Ted added that Bitcoin must break and reclaim $71,000 to sustain rallies. Until then, he expects most price pumps to retrace fully.

PCE Inflation Data Reduces Rate Cut Expectations

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the PCE inflation data. Headline PCE rose 0.4% month over month in December 2025, the fastest pace since February 2025. 

Year over year, it increased to 2.9%, slightly above expectations. Core PCE also climbed 0.4% monthly and reached 3.0% annually. The report showed softer personal income growth and weaker consumption patterns. 

However, firmer inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates elevated. The next PCE release, covering January 2026, is scheduled for March 13, 2026.