BTC price is still ‘signficantly undervalued,’ Bitwise says: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$66,874.80 has gained 2% in the past 24 hours, scrambling to top $68,000 after a selloff earlier this month. That’s done little to ease sentiment, with the “Fear and Greed” index remaining at the “extreme fear” level for a 20th straight day.

André Dragosch, the head of research in Europe at Bitwise, said consolidation is expected after the crash, which saw bitcoin drop to a $60,000 low.

“Apart from Covid, bitcoin doesn’t usually show V-shaped recoveries after strong capitulations,” he told CoinDesk. “The most likely case is that we continue to move sideways to down.”

Still, Dragosch pointed to signs for optimism. Prediction markets now place the odds of the U.S.’s Clarity Act passing in 2026 near 80%. He described the bill as a major catalyst for alternative tokens such as ether (ETH) and solana (SOL). Bitwise’s internal Cryptoasset Sentiment Index registered neutral, he added.

“On the macro front, bitcoin continues to exhibit significant ‘discounts’ with respect to global money supply, gold, and the overall macro growth outlook. Bitcoin also exhibits a significant undervaluation relative to global Bitcoin ETP flows,” Dragosch said. “ETP flows are still relatively weak, but once risk appetite and flows return, this suggests we could see a significant catch-up in bitcoin.”

Caution lingers, however. Data from CryptoQuant shows large bitcoin holders have moved coins onto Binance at record levels. Such transfers often signal intent to sell, increasing the supply on spot markets and potentially weighing on prices.

Dragosch rejected concerns bitcoin may be a “canary in the macro coal mine,” signaling tighter liquidity and rising recession risk. The U.S. yield curve and other forward indicators suggest continued money supply growth, he said. Global liquidity is expanding at more than 10% a year, a backdrop that has not typically aligned with extended bitcoin bear markets, he added.

Indeed, prediction markets have reduced the odds of a recession in the U.S. this year. The chance of that happening plunged from over 40% in mid-2025 to just above 20%.

The crypto market may nevertheless see volatility rise into the weekend. Later today, U.S. core PCE index data is released, which could provide clues on future Fed policy direction.

Traders are bracing for a tight rise from previous figures. While higher inflation traditionally supports the case for scarce assets, a hawkish reaction from the Fed could drive the dollar higher, further pressuring risk assets into the weekend. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Feb. 20. 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Core PCE price index MoM for December est. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%); YoY est. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%)
  • Feb. 20, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. GDP growth rate QoQ Adv for Q4 est. 3. (Prev. 4.4%)
  • Feb. 20, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash for February est. 52.6 (Prev. 52.4).
  • Feb. 20, 10 a.m.: U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment final for February est. 57.3 (Prev. 56.4)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting to consolidate assets from depleted wallets into the Liquidity wallet to simplify operations. Voting ends Feb. 22.
  • Fluid DAO is voting to withdraw 1 million GHO and 1 million FLUID from the treasury to the Team Multisig to fund JupLend rewards and protocol incentives. Voting ends Feb. 22.
  • GMX is voting on a proposal to implement tiered trading fee discounts for stakers and a staker-weighted trading leaderboard. Voting ends Feb. 22.
• Unlocks
  • Feb. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $48.33 million.
  • Feb. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 10.64% of its circulating supply worth $10.77 million.
• Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.97% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $68,220.42 (24hrs: +1.98%)
• ETH is up 1.1% at $1,969.19 (24hrs: +0.12%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.5% at 1,960.80 (24hrs: +1.14%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.83%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0047% (-5.1936% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 97.95
• Gold futures are up 0.97% at $5,046.00
• Silver futures are up 3.9% at $80.66
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.12% at 56,825.70
• Hang Seng closed down 1.1% at 26,413.35
• FTSE is up 0.69% at 10,700.09
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.48% at 6,088.42
• DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.54% at 49,395.16
• S&P 500 closed down 0.28% at 6,861.89
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.31% at 22,682.73
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.61% at 33,594.98
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.83% at 3,738.74
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.4 bps at 4.071%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 6,890.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.29% at 24,930.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.12% at 49,516.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.04% (+0.4%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02883 (-0.93%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,046 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $29.88
• Total fees: 2.36 BTC / $157,285
• CME Futures Open Interest: 119,935 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.54%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price moves against the dollar.
• BTC/USD weekly is still trading at its 200-week exponential moving average, waiting for a confirmation by the end of the week.
• There are no clear RSI divergences or signs of a bottom so far.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $165.94 (+1.15%), +1.98% at $169.23 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $61.92 (-1.95%), +2.08% at $63.21
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.63 (-0.46%)
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.37 (+1.63%), -1.05% at $32.03
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.96 (+6.13%), +1.63% at $8.09
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.22 (+4.71%), +1.36% at $16.44
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.98 (+4.11%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.82 (+5.93%), +1.43% at $9.96
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.69 (+1.62%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.42 (+5.47%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.45 (+3.39%), +2.48% at $132.66
• Strive (ASST): closed at $8.12 (+0.87%), +0.99% at $8.20
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.80 (+3.03%)
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.67 (-3.33%), +3.48% at $0.69
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.10 (+0.00%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$165.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $53.91 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.26 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$130.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.55 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.73 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping