Bitcoin Enters Demand-Verification Phase as U.S. Growth Slows

A report shared by CryptoQuant frames Bitcoin’s current market phase as a corrective structure unfolding within a broader bearish backdrop, shaped increasingly by weakening U.S. macro data rather than crypto-native catalysts.

The analysis links slowing consumer demand and softening wage growth to fragile capital flows, arguing that Bitcoin remains sensitive to risk-off dynamics until spot demand meaningfully improves.

U.S. Retail Data Signals Turning Point in Growth Cycle

December U.S. retail sales missed expectations in both the core measure and the retail control group, reinforcing signs of deceleration in consumer spending. Given that consumption remains a primary engine of U.S. economic expansion, the downside surprise is interpreted less as statistical noise and more as a potential inflection point in the business cycle.

At the same time, the Employment Cost Index undershot forecasts, signaling moderation in wage inflation. Manufacturing employment continues its structural decline, pointing to cyclical weakness in a key sector. Taken together, consumption, wage trends, and industrial employment suggest a disinflationary environment accompanied by slowing growth.

The report notes that such conditions typically pressure risk assets in the short term, even when longer-term expectations of policy easing begin to build.

Bitcoin in Corrective Structure Under Macro Pressure

Within this macro framework, Bitcoin is described as being in a corrective phase nested inside a broader bearish trend. Directionally, bearish forces remain conditionally dominant, though the outlook remains sensitive to changes in liquidity conditions and capital allocation patterns.

Under slowing growth, Bitcoin has shown behavior similar to equities, reacting negatively to risk-off impulses while occasionally rebounding on expectations of future Federal Reserve accommodation. However, the sustainability of those rebounds depends on the underlying quality of demand.

Coinbase Premium Gap Signals Weak U.S. Spot Participation

A central element of the report is the behavior of the Coinbase Premium Gap. Since late 2025, the metric has remained persistently negative, signaling subdued U.S. spot demand relative to offshore markets.

Historically, early bull-market transitions have coincided with stabilization of the Coinbase Premium in positive territory, reflecting sustained domestic spot accumulation. That condition has not yet materialized.

The current negative premium suggests that price movements are being driven more by derivatives positioning than by organic spot demand from U.S.-based buyers. Without consistent positive readings, upside moves risk remaining technically reactive rather than structurally supported.

Base Case: Demand Verification Phase

CryptoQuant’s base case characterizes the market as being in a demand-verification phase amid macro slowdown. The corrective pattern may persist until clear evidence emerges of renewed U.S. spot participation.

A sustained improvement in ETF inflows combined with a positive and stable Coinbase Premium would challenge the current cautious stance. Until those signals appear, the structure remains vulnerable to macro-driven volatility, with capital flows serving as the primary determinant of directional conviction.

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