BTC Tests $75K As Burry Warns Of Corporate Death Spiral

• Bitcoin gains 1.29% to $76,637 after bouncing from $75,355 lows as Michael Burry warns of a death spiral for corporate BTC holders.
• Spot outflows reach $54.45 million on February 4, extending distribution as price trades 40% below October highs.
• Recovery requires reclaiming $84,468, while a close below $74,000 opens downside toward the $65,000 demand zone.

Bitcoin price today trades near $76,637 after testing the $75,355 level that marks the lowest price since late 2024. The bounce comes as Michael Burry, the investor who famously shorted the housing market in 2008, warns that corporate Bitcoin holders face a potential death spiral if prices fall another 10%.

Burry Warns Of Corporate Bitcoin Collapse

Michael Burry posted a stark warning on Monday, calling Bitcoin a speculative bet rather than a real hedge. He noted that while gold and silver surged on dollar weakness fears, Bitcoin failed to respond, undermining its narrative as a store of value.

Burry’s core concern centers on corporate balance sheets. He warned that if Bitcoin falls another 10% from current levels, Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, would be deep in the red and could lose access to funding. He said miners would be next to break.

The warning carries weight given Burry’s track record. His death spiral thesis suggests that forced selling from distressed corporate holders could trigger cascading liquidations, pushing prices lower and creating more distressed sellers in a reflexive feedback loop.

Bitcoin has now fallen 40% from its October highs, validating the concerns of those who questioned the wisdom of corporate treasury strategies built around a volatile asset.

Spot Outflows Continue At $54 Million

Coinglass data shows $54.45 million in spot outflows on February 4, continuing the distribution pattern that has defined the past two weeks. The selling pressure from spot markets confirms that holders are reducing exposure rather than accumulating at lower levels.

The flow pattern through late January and early February shows consistent net outflows with no meaningful accumulation days. When spot selling persists during a crash, it signals conviction from sellers and raises questions about where natural buying demand will emerge.

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If Burry’s thesis proves correct and corporate holders begin forced selling, spot outflows could accelerate significantly from current levels.

Daily RSI Hits Oversold Territory

On the daily chart, Bitcoin trades well below all four major EMAs within a descending channel that has guided price action since October. The 20 day EMA sits at $84,468, the 50 day at $88,280, the 100 day at $92,655, and the 200 day at $97,132.

RSI has dropped to 28.75, entering oversold territory for the first time since the November 2024 correction. While oversold readings can precede bounces, they do not guarantee reversals without supporting price action and improving flows.

The descending trendline from October continues to cap rallies, with price consistently making lower highs and lower lows. The $65,000 horizontal support zone represents the next major demand area if $74,000 fails.

Short Term Structure Shows Bollinger Band Compression

On the 2-hour chart, Bitcoin has broken below the lower Bollinger Band at $74,743 before recovering to $76,650. The 20 period SMA sits at $77,435, marking immediate resistance for any recovery attempt.

The Supertrend indicator remains bearish at $78,137, confirming the short-term downtrend. Price is attempting to reclaim the lower Bollinger Band after the oversold flush, a pattern that can signal short-term stabilization.

The upper Bollinger Band at $80,126 represents the first meaningful resistance zone. Bulls need a close above this level to signal any shift in momentum. Until then, bounces remain relief rallies within a larger downtrend.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?

The trend remains firmly bearish while price trades below the EMA cluster and corporate selling risk looms.

• Bullish case: A daily close above $84,468 would reclaim the 20 day EMA and signal that the $75,000 zone marked a local bottom. That move requires stabilization in corporate sentiment and improving spot flows.
• Bearish case: A close below $74,000 would confirm Burry’s death spiral thesis is in motion and target the $65,000 demand zone. With corporate balance sheets under pressure and spot outflows persisting, that scenario carries meaningful probability.

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