XRP Price Holds $1.60 as Cycle Models Signal Patience Before Expansion

Key Insights:

• XRP price is testing long-term structural support near the monthly 33 EMA.
• Liquidity behavior implies positioning resets, not confirmed trend failure.
• Cycle models involve focusing on consolidation in time before expansion.
• Resurfaced historical emails add a psychological level to the existing market sentiment.

XRP price is nearing a decisive phase as long-term technical levels return into focus. Chart analysts, cycle observers, and historical narratives are converging on a similar time. The result is a market structure that promotes patience, liquidity behavior, and conviction.

XRP Price Tests Structural Support at Long-Term EMA Levels

XRP price is currently interacting with a long-observed confluence zone near the monthly 33 EMA. This is an area that has historically been a structural divide between consolidation and expansion phases. Recent candles show wicking of price into this zone as opposed to a clean break through.

According to EGRAG Crypto’s market commentary, such a trend is consistent with a classic liquidity test. He goes on to explain that the first touches of the 33 EMA often beckon stop hunts rather than immediate continuation. In this framework, XRP price holding near $1.60 represents structural defense, not weakness. The analyst pointed to the fact that closing strength is more important than intramonth volatility at this point.

EGRAG Crypto also noted that the liquidity got swept to over $1.64 before the price stabilized. This sweep implies that leveraged positioning was cleared without hurting the general trend. From this point of view, XRP price is still inside a rising macro channel and not a breakdown. The structure-first approach holds that EMAs only confirm trends after reactions occur.

Liquidity Grabs and Expansion Paths

In addition, current chart projections showed two prominent structural paths for XRP price. The first path assumes a relief bounce followed by a secondary liquidity sweep. This second test would aim towards the $1.37 region before any larger expansion attempt.

EGRAG Crypto called this a “double liquidity grab” structure. He suggested markets often need a second flush to confirm real demand. Such moves tend to frustrate both bulls and bears before the direction is clear. In this scenario, XRP price is range-bound with internal pressure building.

The other possible path implies direct expansion without going back to lower support. This scenario is based on historical fractals observed during previous XRP market cycles. Past cycles went straight from EMA contact to aggressive upside momentum. Using those comparisons, expansion projections extend out to $7 and even $27 zones.

Importantly, these levels are not presented as immediate targets. They are theoretical endpoints if the conditions for expansion are met. XRP price must first regain intermediate levels, particularly the $2.40 threshold. Failure to reach above that zone would delay any sustained trend continuation.

Cycle-Based Models Suggest Extended Consolidation

Beyond EMA analysis, cycle-focused traders drew similarities across historical bases of XRP.

Long periods of little volatility have preceded sharp repricing events in past cycles. These phases often turned out to be several years and then resolved upwards.

Market commentators on TradingView indicated repeated base structures from 2017 and 2021. They believe XRP price is still early in its cycle range. Some models put the expansion of meaningful until late 2027 or 2028. This outlook focuses on time rather than immediate expectations of direction.

One popular chart focuses on extended sideways action after volatility spikes. In that model, price moves in tight bands before taking off suddenly vertically. Supporters of this view emphasized that accumulation phases are characterized by boredom, not fear. They also caution against overreacting to short-term swings within larger structures.

Historical Rivalries Reframe Market Psychology Around XRP Price

Meanwhile, a separate narrative layer came after resurfaced documents from the early history of crypto. Leaked 2014 emails showed intense tribalism among early bitcoin investors. These communications presented XRP and Stellar proponents as competitive threats.

The email chain, subsequently analyzed by Ripple’s CTO emeritus, David Schwartz, described investor pressure. Entrepreneur Austin Hill encouraged leading investors to pull their support of Jed McCaleb-linked projects. Recipients included Reid Hoffman, Joichi Ito, and Jeffrey Epstein. The message was crafted as an ultimatum: “pick one side or the other” when it comes to investing.

According to the community researcher Leonidas Hadjilozou, this strategy was part of early ecosystem politics. Access to high-profile ventures such as Blockstream was seen as a conditional privilege. Endorsing Ripple or Stellar might have meant being excluded from other strategic opportunities.

XRP price approaches a critical EMA support as liquidity grabs, cycle models, and market psychology shape the next major move.

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