AVAX Technical Analysis Feb 3

AVAX’s 24-hour trading volume reached 247.40 million dollars, while the price’s 4.66% rise is supported by low-medium volume; this situation indicates potential accumulation signals in the overall downtrend while showing cautious market participation.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

AVAX’s current volume profile stands out with 247.40 million dollars in trading volume over the last 24 hours. This level indicates medium participation compared to recent weekly averages – typically ranging between 200-300 million dollars for AVAX, the volume has remained relatively stable during the recent downtrend. While the price rose 4.66% to the $10.11 level, this medium-level increase in volume shows that the broader masses have not yet fully participated. Market participation, especially when combined with a low RSI (29.93), can be interpreted as a recovery signal from the oversold region. In volume histograms, the contraction of volume during recent declines and slight expansion in today’s rise provide clues that sellers are exhausting. However, with the supertrend still bearish and resistance above EMA20 ($11.59), higher volumes are needed to confirm if participation is sustainable. In a multi-timeframe (MTF) volume context, 8 strong levels have been identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/1 resistance on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. These levels confirm that the volume is drawing a profile supporting the price, but if overall participation remains weak, a trend change may be delayed.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Signals in favor of accumulation are strong: Despite RSI at 29.93 in the oversold region, the price rose 4.66% with volume support without contraction. This evokes a classic accumulation pattern – large players buying at low levels while retail sellers complete their panic selling. The latest support level at $10.1133 (74/100 score) appears to be held here with volume. Volume contraction in the downtrend (20-30% lower than previous days) implies that smart money is accumulating positions. If volume increases while breaking the $10.52 resistance, accumulation will be confirmed, paving the way to the $14.22 target. Additionally, despite the negative MACD histogram, the volume-price divergence (volume decreasing as price falls) supports the bottoming process.

Distribution Risks

Distribution risks stem from the low-volume rise: The 4.66% gain remained limited to 247M volume; this carries trap rally potential. If there is no volume explosion at the $10.52 resistance, large players may switch to selling instead of rising. The 3 resistance levels on the 1W timeframe prepare suitable ground for distribution. With the bearish supertrend ($12.22 resistance) and BTC dominance effect, an upside breakout without volume increase may fail, triggering a return to the $9.16 support.

Price-Volume Harmony

Price action is partially aligned with volume, but divergences are noteworthy. While price lingers below EMA20 ($11.59) in the overall downtrend, volume has progressively decreased during declines – a healthy bear exhaustion sign. Although volume rose to medium levels in today’s +4.66% rise, the uptick volume remains lower than the down-move volume; this means weak confirmation. For a healthy bullish move, upside volume should ideally be 1.5-2 times the downside volume – currently around 1.2 times. While the $10.1133 support is held with volume, the volume test at $10.52 resistance is critical. Although MACD is bearish, the volume-price divergence gives a bullish bias: Volume has stabilized while price does not make new lows. This discrepancy is a leading signal for trend reversal.

Large Player Activity

Large player (institutional/whale) activity is concentrated in high volume nodes (HVN) in the volume profile – especially around $10.11, a strong HVN has formed, overlapping with MTF supports. The medium volume in the last 24 hours implies inflows from whale wallets (would be clearer with on-chain data support). Volume contraction in the downtrend shows institutional buying is being hidden; for example, volume spikes approaching the $9.16 support would indicate whale defense. However, exact positions cannot be known – only speculation based on patterns. If volume explodes at resistances (e.g., $11.7152), FOMO-driven retail participation will push the larges upward. Conversely, low-volume breakouts lead to shakeouts.

Bitcoin Correlation

AVAX is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); as BTC rose 4.03% to $78,373, AVAX gave a similar reaction. While BTC is in a downtrend and supertrend bearish ($78,426 support, $79,312 resistance), caution prevails for altcoins. If BTC slips below $74,604, AVAX falls to $9.16; in a breakout above $83,548, AVAX targets $14.22. Rising BTC dominance pressures AVAX – volume analysis suggests waiting for BTC’s move. Key BTC levels: Support $78,426/$74,604, Resistance $79,312/$83,548.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook is cautiously bullish: Bounce supported by medium volume favors accumulation. Wait for volume increase at $10.52 – if confirmed, $14.22; if failed, $5.91 bearish target. Follow volume confirmations for AVAX Spot Analysis and AVAX Futures Analysis. Volume tells the story beyond price: Reversal if participation increases, continuation if it contracts. (Total words: ~1050)