Bitcoin Likely to Enter Long Sideways Consolidation as Realized Cap “Flatlines”
Prices slipped again on Sunday as selling pressure outpaced fresh buying, leaving traders to wonder whether Bitcoin (BTC) has actually found a floor or is simply settling into a long, boring grind. The mood sharpened after Ki Young Ju, whose firm CryptoQuant tracks flows and behavior on the chain, warned on X that realized capitalization has “flatlined,” meaning new money has largely stopped showing up, and earlier holders are quietly taking profits.
On the market screen, the consequences were plain. Bitcoin was trading near the high-$70,000s on Sunday, down roughly 6% in 24 hours as volatility spiked and liquidity thinned. That drop pushed prices below the psychologically important $80,000 mark, a move that echoed headlines blaming shifting macro expectations and a wave of ETF-related selling.
Ju’s point about the realized cap is simple but important for anyone who watches chains. When the realized cap stops rising, it suggests fewer new entrants are buying at current price levels. In other words, market cap shrinking under a flat realized cap isn’t the kind of healthy price correction that signals a new bull run; it’s profit-taking against a backdrop of fading demand. That dynamic has been visible in recent ETF activity, where weeks of outflows and several big single-day withdrawals have eroded the steady bid that had supported the rally.
Michael Saylor Hangs on a Potential Crash
Another factor that has been pressed into service by many analysts is the outsized role of Strategy and its founder, Michael Saylor, in propping up prices over the last year. Large accumulations by Strategy and the passive buying from spot Bitcoin ETFs helped push the Bitcoin price toward last year’s highs, and Ju argued that unless a major holder like Saylor decides to liquidate a big chunk of his stash, the market probably won’t suffer the kind of 70% drawdown seen in some prior cycles. That’s a cold comfort for traders, though, because it doesn’t mean the path upward is clear.
Macro headlines haven’t offered much relief. News that the U.S. central bank’s leadership and policy direction could tighten liquidity has made risk assets more skittish, and commentators say that shifting expectations on monetary policy helped catalyze the latest selloff. In short, a shortage of fresh capital, active profit-taking, and a less-forgiving macro backdrop have combined to produce the current slide.
Ju’s takeaway, and the one most traders are acting on, is that Bitcoin may be headed for a wide, sideways consolidation rather than an explosive bull run or a catastrophic crash. That means more chop, fewer clear trends, and a renewed focus on flows: ETF subscriptions, large-wallet moves, and macro signs will likely dictate the next leg. Until fresh buyers return in force, expect price action to feel like a tug-of-war where neither side has enough strength to win cleanly.
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