Opec+ to keep oil output unchanged as Iran tensions boost prices

• Opec+ keeps pause in output hikes in March
• Brent crude near highest since August
• Lack of guidance post-March significant

Opec+ agreed to keep its oil output unchanged for March at a meeting, the producer group said on Sunday, even after crude prices hit six-month highs on concern the US could launch a military strike on Opec member Iran.

The meeting of eight Opec+ members comes as Brent crude closed near $70 a barrel on Friday, close to the six-month high of $71.89 it hit on Thursday, despite speculation that a supply glut in 2026 would push prices down.

The eight producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December 2025, roughly 3 percent of global demand.

In November they froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption.

Sunday’s brief meeting reaffirmed that decision for March, after earlier gatherings did the same for January and February.

No forward guidance

Sunday’s statement made no mention of what Opec+ could decide for specific months beyond March, and the lack of forward guidance is significant, said Jorge Leon, a former Opec official who now works as head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

“With rising uncertainty around Iran and US tensions, the group is keeping all options firmly on the table,” he said.

“Opec’s own numbers point to a lower call on Opec+ crude in the second quarter, which could limit the scope for production increases,” Leon added.

Opec+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia and other allies. The full Opec+ pumps about half of the world’s oil.

A separate Opec+ panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee also met on Sunday. The JMMC does not have decision-making authority on production policy.

The JMMC stressed the importance of achieving full compliance with Opec+ output agreements, a statement on Opec’s website said.

Both sides signal willingness to talk

US President Donald Trump is weighing options on Iran that include targeted strikes against security forces and leaders, aiming to inspire protesters, multiple sources said on Thursday.

Washington has imposed extensive sanctions on Tehran to choke off its oil revenue, a crucial source of state funding.

Both the US and Iran have since signalled willingness to engage in dialogue, but Tehran on Friday said its defence capabilities should not be included in any talks.

Oil prices have also been supported by supply losses in Kazakhstan, where the oil sector has suffered a series of disruptions in recent months. Kazakhstan said on Wednesday it was restarting the huge Tengiz oilfield in stages.

The eight countries plan to hold their next meeting on March 1 and the JMMC on April 5, the statements showed.

Further reading:

• World oil market faces significant surplus, IEA predicts
• Shadows and skulduggery on the open seas
• Iranian businesses suffer new blow as internet blackout lingers