Joerg Hiller
Feb 01, 2026 15:35
Stellar (XLM) trades at $0.17 after 4.59% decline, showing oversold RSI at 26.42. Technical analysis suggests potential bounce toward $0.19-$0.26 resistance zone within 4-6 weeks.
XLM Price Prediction Summary
• Short-term target (1 week): $0.19
• Medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.21-$0.26 range
• Bullish breakout level: $0.19
• Critical support: $0.16
What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Stellar
While specific analyst predictions are limited, recent technical analysis from blockchain research platforms provides valuable insights into XLM’s trajectory. According to recent market analysis, Stellar has been consolidating after experiencing significant bearish pressure, with technical indicators suggesting a potential recovery phase may be approaching.
On-chain data indicates that XLM’s current positioning near critical support levels, combined with oversold momentum indicators, could present an opportunity for a technical bounce. Market sentiment analysis suggests that despite the recent 4.59% decline, the fundamental structure remains intact for a potential reversal.
XLM Technical Analysis Breakdown
Stellar’s current technical picture presents a mixed but potentially bullish setup. Trading at $0.17, XLM has declined 4.59% in the last 24 hours, pushing the token into clearly oversold territory.
The RSI indicator at 26.42 signals deeply oversold conditions, historically suggesting that a technical bounce could be imminent. This level typically indicates that selling pressure may be exhausted, creating conditions for potential reversal.
MACD analysis shows bearish momentum with both the MACD line and signal line at -0.0104, though the histogram at 0.0000 suggests momentum may be stabilizing. This convergence often precedes trend changes in either direction.
Bollinger Bands positioning reveals XLM trading below the lower band at $0.18, with the %B indicator at -0.09. This positioning indicates the price is significantly compressed below normal trading ranges, often followed by mean reversion toward the middle band at $0.21.
The moving average structure shows resistance levels clearly defined, with the 7-day SMA at $0.20, 20-day SMA at $0.21, and 50-day SMA at $0.22. These levels will serve as key resistance points during any recovery attempt.
Stellar Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the optimistic case for this XLM price prediction, a successful bounce from current oversold levels could target the immediate resistance at $0.18-$0.19. Breaking through this zone would open the path toward the 7-day moving average at $0.20, followed by the critical $0.21-$0.22 resistance cluster.
A Stellar forecast targeting $0.26 becomes viable if XLM can reclaim the 20-day moving average and generate sustained buying momentum. The upper Bollinger Band at $0.24 would serve as an intermediate target, with a breakout potentially extending the move toward $0.26-$0.27.
Key bullish confirmation would include RSI recovery above 40, MACD histogram turning positive, and sustained trading above the $0.19 breakout level.
Bearish Scenario
The downside risk remains significant if XLM fails to hold current support levels. A breakdown below $0.16 could accelerate selling toward the next major support zone around $0.14-$0.15.
In a severe bearish scenario, failure to maintain the $0.16 support could lead to a retest of deeper support levels, potentially extending the decline toward $0.12. This outcome would likely require broader cryptocurrency market weakness or Stellar-specific negative developments.
Risk factors include continued selling pressure, failure of RSI to establish a higher low, and breakdown below the current consolidation range.
Should You Buy XLM? Entry Strategy
Current technical conditions suggest a potential entry opportunity for risk-tolerant traders, though timing remains crucial. The oversold RSI and compressed Bollinger Band positioning support the case for a technical bounce.
Primary entry strategy: Consider scaled entries between $0.16-$0.17, with initial position sizing around current levels. A more aggressive entry could target the $0.16 support test, while conservative buyers might wait for confirmation above $0.18.
Stop-loss placement: Position stops below $0.155 to limit downside risk while allowing room for normal volatility. The daily ATR of $0.01 suggests this level provides appropriate risk management.
Target management: Take partial profits at $0.19 resistance, with remaining positions targeting the $0.21-$0.22 zone. Full profit-taking could be considered if XLM reaches the $0.24-$0.26 range within the projected timeframe.
Conclusion
This XLM price prediction suggests that Stellar’s current oversold condition presents a potential reversal opportunity, with technical indicators supporting a bounce toward $0.19 in the near term and $0.21-$0.26 over the next month.
The Stellar forecast remains cautiously optimistic, contingent on maintaining support above $0.16 and generating follow-through buying above $0.18. While the technical setup favors upside potential, traders should remain vigilant of broader market conditions that could impact cryptocurrency sentiment.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are speculative and involve substantial risk. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Image source: Shutterstock
Source: https://blockchain.news/news/20260201-price-prediction-xlm-oversold-stellar-eyes-026-recovery-by
