Bitcoin’s (BTC) pre-FOMC rally on Wednesday stalled at $90,000 amid stiff overhead resistance and weak ETF demand. Still, several data points suggested that upward momentum may increase once the BTC/USD pair breaks above $93,000.
Key takeaways:
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BTC bulls must flip the $90,000-$93,000 range into new support.
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Spot ETF outflows are stabilizing, suggesting a reduction in institutional sell pressure.
Bitcoin price must reclaim $93,000 as support
The BTC/USD dropped into a new range between $86,000 and $90,000, where it has been stuck since Jan. 20.
“Bitcoin is back to retesting $86,000-$87,000 range,” co-founder of Crypto India Aditya Singh said in a recent post on X, adding that the key support for Bitcoin is the 100-week moving average at $87,500.
Related: Bitcoin rallies expected to be short-lived until liquidity returns: Data
The chart below shows that the main resistance sits between the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $90,000 and the 100-day SMA at $94,000.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewZooming out, Bitcoin “may not be as weak as many people think,” analyst Jelle said in a Wednesday post on X.
The downtrend is broken, and the lows have been taken out in the weekly time frame, Jelle said, adding:
BTC/USD three-day chart. Source: JelleBitcoin analyst AlphaBTC said that a grab of the liquidity cluster around $93,400 could happen next.
Source: AlphaBTCAs Cointelegraph reported, a break and close above the moving averages opens the gates for a rally to the $98,000 resistance zone. A close above this resistance zone could signal the end of the corrective phase.
Bitcoin ETF outflows diminish
One factor that could trigger a BTC price breakout is a resurgence in institutional demand, which has diminished following heavy outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Data from Glassnode reveals that US spot Bitcoin flows are “stabilising, with the 30D average drifting back toward neutral after sustained outflows.”
While this “marks a meaningful cooling in sell-side pressure,” the BTC market is still “leaning more on spot holder conviction than fresh ETF-driven demand,” the onchain data provider said, adding:
Spot Bitcoin ETF net flows, 30DMA. Source: GlassnodeHowever, data from Capriole Investments reveals that the number of Bitcoin treasury companies buying BTC daily has dropped sharply, reinforcing the decline in institutional demand.
Bitcoin treasury companies buyers. Source: Capriole InvestmentsMichael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury holder, is the only company that appears to be buying, adding 2,932 BTC for $264.1 million last week.
The purchase brought Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 712,647 BTC, purchased for about $54.19 billion at an average price of $76,037 per coin.
Bitcoin’s chances of breaking above $90,000 will increase when institutional demand and ETF inflows return.
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Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-rejected-at-90k-again-what-will-trigger-breakout?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
