Competition in the growing prediction markets sector is shifting from pure liquidity provision toward control of the user interface, with digital wallets increasingly emerging as a key distribution layer for access to these markets.
This is the central argument of a new 2026 outlook report from Bitget, which examines how fragmentation across multiple platforms is reshaping where competitive advantage is likely to form.
The analysis comes as prediction markets are shattering records. On-chain data from Dune Analytics shows daily trading volume hit an all-time high of $814 million on January 21, putting the market on pace to easily surpass December's record $11.5 billion in monthly volume.
Why Wallets Are Emerging as the Distribution Layer
However, this activity is spread across a fragmented landscape of successful but siloed platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and the newly launched Opinion.
According to the Bitget report, this very fragmentation is what’s causing the competitive focus to evolve. "As supply improves, competition is no longer centered on whether platforms can list enough markets," the report states. "Instead, differentiation increasingly occurs at the interface layer – where users discover events, interpret probabilities, and execute trades."
The report argues that digital wallets are well positioned to become the primary access point for prediction markets. By bringing event discovery, data visualisation and trade execution from multiple platforms into a single workflow, wallets could address the fragmentation that currently defines the sector.
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In this model, the wallet evolves beyond a passive container for holdings. Instead, it becomes an event-driven interface where users can interpret probabilities, form views on real-world outcomes and act on them financially without switching between multiple platforms.
A similar direction has been highlighted by venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (A16z). In recent analysis, the firm suggested that the next phase of prediction markets will rely on tighter integration with AI and crypto-native technologies, including user verification and enhanced data layers.
For the B2B audience of brokers and fintech developers, the takeaway from Bitget's report is clear. As prediction markets become a core feature of the modern financial landscape, the primary strategic opportunity may no longer lie in building another siloed exchange, but in creating the best integrated "front door" that gives users a single, intelligent point of access to all of them.
