Bitcoin vs Gold: Why BTC Usually Moves After Gold, Says Raoul Pal

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Macro investor Raoul Pal says Bitcoin’s recent underperformance compared to gold is not unusual and could actually be setting the stage for a strong move later.

Speaking about the long-running Bitcoin–gold comparison, Pal explained that gold typically moves first, while Bitcoin tends to catch up later in the cycle. According to him, this is not really about gold itself, but about where the global economy sits in the business cycle.

It’s Not About Gold, It’s About Liquidity

Pal said gold simply reflects financial conditions. When governments face rising debt and interest costs, they often inject liquidity into the system. That liquidity eventually flows through asset markets.

“Financial conditions lead liquidity, and liquidity drives asset prices,” Pal explained. In past cycles, gold has moved first, followed by Bitcoin with a delay.

He added that if you compare Bitcoin and gold prices with roughly a six-month lag, their charts line up closely. The current gap between them, which he described as “alligator jaws,” is mainly due to crypto-specific market damage, not a broken cycle.

Crypto Is Underowned Right Now

Pal believes most investors are currently underweight crypto, as many think the bull cycle is already over. If the market turns higher from here, he expects investors to chase prices quickly.

“If crypto starts moving again, people will realize they’re underexposed,” he said.

Why 2026 Could Be a Big Year for Bitcoin

Pal also shared why he believes 2026 could be a major year for Bitcoin. His framework, which he calls the “Everything Code,” is based on global liquidity, which he says explains around 90% of Bitcoin’s price moves.

He said that last year did not bring the liquidity boost many expected. Governments extended debt timelines, effectively pushing the cycle from four years to five years instead.

Unexpected events, including a long government shutdown and liquidity being pulled from the system, hurt risk assets like crypto the most. Bitcoin and the broader crypto market were hit especially hard in October, when a major liquidation event across exchanges caused widespread damage.

Why Bitcoin Has Been Moving Sideways

Pal said the crypto market is still repairing itself after that shock. This explains why Bitcoin has been trading sideways while stocks and gold have pushed to new highs.

“Crypto sits at the far end of the risk curve,” Pal said. “When liquidity disappears, it gets hit first. But when liquidity returns, it also tends to recover the fastest.”

According to Raoul Pal, Bitcoin lagging behind gold is part of a normal macro cycle. If global liquidity improves as expected, Bitcoin could eventually play catch-up, with 2026 shaping up as a key year for the next major move.