ETH Weekly Analysis Jan 23

ETH closed the week with a 1.89% decline, maintaining the main downtrend structure; consolidation around $2,962 is approaching the critical support test at $2,623, and altcoin rotation remains limited under BTC pressure.

Weekly Market Summary for ETH

ETH completed the week of January 23, 2026 at the $2,961.97 level, with a weekly change of -1.89%. The trading range showed narrow consolidation between $2,906.02 – $3,027.90, while the volume profile remained low at $13.90 billion. Downtrend dominance continues across the market; RSI at 39.55 gives a neutral-bearish momentum signal, while MACD confirms trend pressure with a negative histogram. Price, unable to hold above the short-term EMA20 ($3,111.87), pulled back without testing the $2,970 resistance. There is no significant news flow in the macro context, but BTC’s downtrend is creating pressure on altcoins. This week, a cautious stance is forefront for position traders as long as the trend structure is not broken; accumulation signals remain weak.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

From a long-term perspective, ETH is maintaining the downtrend structure that began from the peaks at the end of 2025 (up to -60%). Although higher-lows are forming on the weekly timeframe, no trend breakout has occurred with lower-highs; price is approaching the lower band of the main descending channel ($2,623 major support). Moving average filters are giving bearish signals: ETH, unable to hold above the 50-week SMA ($3,500+), will keep the downtrend intact as long as it remains below EMA200 (around $3,200). In terms of market cycle, signals for transition from the distribution phase at the beginning of 2026 to accumulation are unclear; decreasing volume indicates weak hands being cleaned out, but institutional buying is limited. From a portfolio manager’s view, $3,500+ recovery targets remain speculative as long as the long-term trend is down – the main focus is on channel breakout or bottom formation.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Examined with Wyckoff methodology, ETH shows an extension of distribution patterns on the weekly: reversal bars and low-volume pullbacks from the $3,027 peak imply smart money sales. In the volume profile, a POC (Point of Control) forms between $2,900-$3,000, and a break below $2,623 could trigger liquidity hunting. Accumulation phase characteristics (high-volume tests, spring/shakeout) are not yet present; RSI divergences are weak. In this context, the market is still in re-distribution – position traders should wait for accumulation buildup if $2,623 holds. Bullish phase transition looks difficult without volume increase.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, ETH rejected the $2,970 resistance (score 85/100) and completed a bearish engulfing pattern; 1D breakdown: 1 support / 3 resistance confluence. RSI at 39.55 is approaching oversold, while the MACD histogram turns negative. Price below EMA20 is holding the $2,906 low in short-term consolidation; however, a break below $2,900 accelerates to 3D supports ($2,623). From a multi-timeframe confluence perspective, daily bearish aligns with weekly support test – traders should wait for a close above $2,970 against false breakout risk. Check spot data for detailed ETH spot analysis.

Weekly Chart View

The weekly view shows strong confluence with 3 supports / 3 resistances; price is squeezed between the channel lower band ($2,623) and EMA50. Low weekly volume signals trend fatigue, but the bearish supertrend filter is active. There is slight divergence on 1W RSI, but momentum is weak. Confluence: Daily bearish + weekly downtrend = short-term downside bias; recovery is limited unless the $3,130-$3,248 resistance cluster breaks. Weekly closes will be decisive for long-term positions.

Critical Decision Points

Main decision points are as follows: Major support $2,623.57 (score 64/100) – potential bounce if it holds, opens path to $2,500s on breakout. Resistances: $2,970.79 (85/100, near-term pivot), $3,130.23 (63/100), $3,248.47 (64/100). These levels carry confluence across 1D/3D/1W timeframes; weekly close above $2,970 signals trend shift, below $2,623 triggers accelerated downtrend. Key inflection point: $2,906-$2,970 range breakout. For risk/reward calculation, upside objective $3,000 (R/R 1:2), downside risk to $2,000 target.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Case of Upside

If $2,970 resistance breaks with a weekly close, long position to $3,130-$3,248 targets; stop-loss below $2,900. Partial entry in accumulation buildup (volume increase + RSI divergence), target above $3,500 channel. Seek confluence with BTC $90k+ recovery. Keep leverage limited with ETH futures market data.

In Case of Downside

Short bias on $2,906 low breakout; targets $2,623, then $2,000. Stop above $3,000. Position scaling as long as downtrend intact, but partial cover on oversold RSI. Expect synchronized movement with BTC below $89k.

Bitcoin Correlation

ETH has 0.85% correlation with BTC; BTC at $89,865 level with downtrend and bearish supertrend signal is blocking altcoin rotation. BTC key supports breaks at $89,149 / $86,737 accelerate ETH $2,623 test; closes above resistances $90,234 / $92,257 support ETH recovery. BTC dominance rise creates ETH relative weakness – hold positions waiting for BTC $90k+. Monitor BTC-ETH pair for ETH and other analyses.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

To watch next week: $2,623 support test and $2,970 resistance reaction; volume increase + BTC stabilization is key for bullish shift. Stay cautious if downtrend not broken, wait for $2,623 hold for accumulation signals. Position traders, set up R/R-focused trades with multi-timeframe confluence – patience forefront in low volatility.