Key takeaways:
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The BTC futures premium held near 5%, showing leverage demand was not impacted after the failed $98,000 breakout attempt.
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Bitcoin ETFs saw $395 million in outflows as gold hit new records, weakening hedge appeal and pushing traders to price downside risk.
Bitcoin (BTC) faced a 3.4% correction over the weekend as investors cut risk following rising global sociopolitical tensions and China reporting its slowest economic growth since 2022.
The retest of the $92,000 level caught bulls off guard, as $215 million in leveraged BTC futures longs (buys) were forcefully liquidated, fueling concerns that a deeper price correction could be underway.
Nasdaq index futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingViewNasdaq index futures traded lower on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced additional import tariff proposals targeting eight European countries, aimed at pressuring negotiations over Greenland’s acquisition, a territory controlled by Denmark. European nations are now discussing retaliatory measures on US product imports, according to Yahoo Finance.
Weak BTC derivatives flag fading interest and hedge appeal
Investors sought safety in cash positions and precious metals as US markets remained closed on Monday due to a national holiday. The Euronext 100 Index declined 1.6%, while gold prices surged above $4,650 for the first time. As a result, even though Bitcoin quickly reclaimed the $93,000 level, the broader market continues to view cryptocurrencies as risk-on assets rather than alternative hedges.
Bitcoin futures basis rate. Source: laevitas.chThe Bitcoin futures’ annualized premium (basis rate) hovered near the neutral-to-bearish 5% level, indicating that demand for leveraged bullish positions was not affected by the failed attempt to reclaim $98,000 on Wednesday. Still, the lack of enthusiasm in BTC derivatives markets may signal waning interest from institutional investors.
Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $395 million in net outflows on Friday, further weighing on traders’ sentiment. As gold and silver prices push to all-time highs, Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge appears less compelling. In response, professional traders have demanded higher premiums to provide downside protection.
BTC 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.chThe BTC options delta skew at Deribit jumped to 8%, indicating that put (sell) options are trading at a premium. In neutral market conditions, this indicator typically ranges from -6% to +6%. As a result, the recent Bitcoin price downturn has reduced whales’ confidence in a bullish breakout above $100,000. Macroeconomic factors continue to dominate headlines and, in turn, shape traders’ risk appetite.
George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, noted that “European countries own $8 trillion of US bonds and equities, almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined,” while the US fiscal imbalance depends on sustained capital inflows. Consequently, Europe may no longer “be as willing” to support the US dollar if the “Western alliance” becomes existentially disrupted.
China’s economy grew 4.5% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2025, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter. Strong exports helped offset weaker consumer spending and business investment, according to the Associated Press. Analysts warn that consumer stimulus policies introduced in 2025 could be scaled back, while a global trade war may weigh on exports.
Related: US Bitcoin traders flip bearish–Is BTC price at risk of losing $90K?
Bitcoin network daily active addresses. Source: NansenDeclining Bitcoin network activity has also raised concerns, as healthy blockchain demand is essential to support investment in mining. Bitcoin miner revenue consists of a fixed 3.125 BTC block reward plus transaction fees. Daily active addresses fell to 370,800, according to Nansen, down 13% from two weeks prior.
Given the weakness across BTC derivatives metrics, there are few signs that the $92,000 level will hold, as investors remain wary of a global economic slowdown and the impact of the Trump administration’s aim to own Greenland and their current involvement in Venezuela.
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