SUI has retreated to the 1.59 dollar level with a sharp 10.97% drop in the last 24 hours and is testing critical support zones. The high-volume selling wave is reinforcing the short-term downtrend, while investors await potential rebound buys from strong supports around 1.50 dollars. Is this move a reflection of the general weakness in the altcoin market, or an opportunity for bottom hunters?
Market Outlook and Current Situation
SUI is trading in a clear downtrend on the daily timeframe. With the current price positioned at 1.59 dollars, the last 24-hour range was between 1.52 – 1.80 dollars. This sharp drop is supported by a trading volume of 613 million dollars, indicating that market interest remains high. Having broken below the short-term EMA20 (1.72 dollars), SUI is well below the 1.95 dollar resistance where the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal. According to multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence analysis, a total of 14 strong levels were identified across the 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 3 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 3S/4R distribution on 1W. This structure signals dominant downward momentum, but long-term weekly supports remain solid.
Sales pressure in altcoins appears to have increased in parallel with Bitcoin’s slight decline across the broader market. SUI’s drop is tied more to reduced macro risk appetite than any negative news on project fundamentals. The increase in volume suggests institutional selling may also be at play. Investors are currently watching whether the price can hold at pivot points around 1.50 dollars. If this level holds, short-term consolidation is possible; otherwise, a deeper correction looms. Check detailed data for SUI Spot Analysis.
From a long-term perspective, SUI’s growth potential in the Layer-1 ecosystem remains valid. However, the current downtrend requires short-term traders to remain cautious. With market sentiment hovering in the neutral-bearish range, sales may slow according to the volume profile.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Support Zones
The most critical support level stands out at 1.5049 dollars (score: 70/100), very close to the 24-hour low of 1.52 dollars. This level is the intersection of the daily pivot and Fibonacci retracements. If the price breaks below here, the next strong support at 1.4214 dollars (69/100) comes into play – aligning with the main support on the 3D timeframe. In a deeper scenario, 1.3039 dollars (61/100) points to the weekly trendline area. These supports are considered high-probability reaction zones thanks to MTF confluence. Historical data shows SUI has exhibited 15-20% rebounds in similar support tests; however, the current bearish momentum may limit this reaction.
Resistance Barriers
The first resistance is at 1.7093 dollars (74/100), near the EMA20. The 1.95 dollars indicated by Supertrend forms a stronger barrier. If these levels are not overcome, the downtrend continues. Increasing volume is essential for an upside breakout; this looks difficult with current low momentum. The SUI Futures Analysis page is ideal for tracking tests of these resistances in leveraged trading.
Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength
RSI (14) at 41.92 is approaching oversold territory while giving a neutral-bearish signal. This value suggests selling pressure is starting to ease, but no strong reversal should be expected until it drops below 30. The MACD indicator confirms a bearish crossover with a negative histogram; the signal line is below zero and momentum is weak. As long as the price remains below EMA20 in the EMA hierarchy, the short-term trend stays bearish. Supertrend being bearish is pushing stop-loss levels higher.
In terms of trend strength, the ADX indicator (around 25) shows moderate downtrend power. Volume Profile analysis reveals a high-volume POC (Point of Control) in the 1.50-1.60 dollar band, which could act as support. On MTF, the 1W trend remains neutral, preserving long-term bull potential, but daily and 3D bearish pressure dominates.
Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook
Short-term outlook is bearish: Target downside level at 0.8387 dollars (score 22), indicating a 47% potential drop from current price. In a bullish scenario, the 2.3608 dollar target (score 31) implies a 48% rise after support holds. Risk/reward ratio for long positions at 1.50 dollar support is around 1:1.5 – acceptable, but volatility is high. Potential risks include Bitcoin correlation and general market liquidity tightness. A balanced approach would be to wait for support confirmation and enter with small positions.
In a positive scenario, RSI divergence and volume increase could lead to a reaction toward 1.70 resistance. On the negative side, a break below 1.50 opens the path to 1.30s. Traders should use tight stop-losses to manage volatility. Overall outlook is cautious; more consolidation may be needed for a bottom formation.
Bitcoin Correlation
As an altcoin with high correlation to Bitcoin, SUI is directly affected by BTC movements. BTC is currently at 92,603 dollars and down 2.70% in 24 hours, but the general uptrend continues. BTC’s main supports are at 92,398, 90,936, and 89,049 dollars; holding these could bring relief to altcoins. Resistances are in the 94,151, 96,155, and 98,500 dollar band. BTC Supertrend being bearish serves as a warning for altcoins – rising dominance could further pressure SUI.
If BTC tests the 92,398 support, additional downside risk increases for SUI toward 1.42 dollars. Conversely, if BTC breaks above 94,151, bullish momentum could be triggered for SUI. Correlation coefficient has been around 0.85 in recent weeks; closely monitor BTC key levels.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/sui-january-19-2026-critical-support-test-under-intense-downside-pressure
