Rivian (RIVN) Stock: Analyst Sees 42% Upside as R2 Platform Nears Launch

TLDR

• Rivian stock soared 15% to $20.28 on Thursday after Baird analyst upgraded shares to Buy with a $25 price target
• The R2 platform launching mid-2026 is expected to drive brand growth and sales with more affordable SUV pricing
• Rivian revealed in-house AI chip development at its Autonomy & AI Day event last week
• Year-to-date gains now sit at 52% despite challenges from the removal of federal EV tax credits
• Wall Street expects 66,000 vehicle sales in 2026, down from earlier projections of 97,000 units

Rivian shares climbed 15% on Thursday, closing at $20.28 and hitting a 52-week high. The rally followed a major upgrade from Baird analyst Ben Kallo.

Rivian Automotive, Inc., RIVN

Kallo raised his rating to Buy from Hold. He also boosted his price target to $25 from $14, a 78% increase.

The analyst’s optimism centers on Rivian’s upcoming R2 platform. “2026 is the year of R2,” Kallo wrote in his client note.

The R2 will be Rivian’s second vehicle platform. It offers a more affordable SUV option compared to the current R1S and R1T models.

Production starts in mid-2026. Kallo believes the R2 can boost Rivian’s brand recognition and product demand.

The upgrade came shortly after Rivian’s first Autonomy & AI Day event. The company surprised investors by announcing it developed its own AI chip.

This in-house technology shows progress toward fully autonomous vehicles. Kallo pointed to this work on autonomous driving as positive for long-term competitiveness.

Navigating EV Market Headwinds

The EV market faces challenges heading into 2026. Sales dropped in October and November after the federal $7,500 tax credit ended in September.

Wall Street now projects Rivian will sell 66,000 vehicles in 2026. That’s down from estimates of 97,000 vehicles made a year ago.

Rivian expects to deliver about 43,000 cars in 2025. The tax credit removal creates a clear headwind for next year’s sales.

Despite these challenges, Rivian stock has gained 52% year-to-date. Thursday’s rally pushed shares well above the average analyst price target of $16.

Only 30% of analysts rate Rivian as Buy. This compares to 55% for S&P 500 stocks overall.

Future Product Pipeline

Kallo stated he wants to own shares heading into the new product cycle. The R2 represents a key milestone for the company.

Beyond R2, Rivian has the R3 crossover SUV in development. This vehicle could provide another catalyst after the R2 launch.

The company’s autonomy event revealed ambitions to deliver complete self-driving capability. While this goal remains further out, it offers additional long-term potential.

Kallo’s $25 price target stands nearly 60% above the Wall Street consensus. His upgrade reflects confidence that the R2 platform can drive the stock higher through 2026.

Rivian closed at its highest level in 52 weeks, with shares trading at $20.33 during Thursday’s session before settling at $20.28.

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