Bitcoin’s Calm Is Deceptive as Major Selling Signals Emerge

Bitcoin is heading into the final stretch of the year under growing pressure, as several overlapping forces are shaping market behavior.

While price action has stabilized near the mid-$80,000 range, sentiment remains fragile amid technical rejection levels, increased long-term holder selling, and seasonal institutional positioning.

One of the immediate market catalysts is the latest triple witching event – a quarterly phenomenon when stock options, index options, and index futures expire simultaneously. These events often trigger sharp price swings as large players rebalance or close positions.

Historically, Bitcoin has shown heightened volatility around these periods, and recent price action has followed a similar pattern. The increased activity in traditional markets appears to be spilling over into crypto, amplifying short-term uncertainty rather than setting a clear directional trend.

Bitcoin Rejected Below Key Resistance

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim higher ground after being rejected near the $86,000-$88,000 zone. Analysts note that lower-timeframe momentum remains bearish unless price can decisively break above $88,000.

Failure to do so could open the door for deeper liquidity sweeps, with downside levels around $83,000 and potentially $80,000 emerging as key areas of interest. These zones are widely watched by traders as potential areas for reaction, especially if broader market conditions deteriorate.

Long-Term Holders Increase Distribution

On-chain data adds another layer of complexity. Long-term Bitcoin holders – often referred to as “OGs” – are currently distributing coins at one of the fastest rates seen in the past five years. This behavior is typically associated with late-cycle conditions or periods when price is perceived as relatively elevated.

While this does not necessarily signal an immediate market top, it does suggest that experienced holders are taking advantage of liquidity to lock in profits. Similar patterns have appeared near previous cycle highs, although timing the market impact remains difficult.

Open Interest Collapse Signals De-Risking

Derivatives data points to a clear reduction in risk appetite. Bitcoin’s open interest has fallen sharply across major exchanges, with estimates suggesting a drop of nearly 50% from recent highs. In dollar terms, this represents tens of billions wiped from leveraged positioning.

This decline reflects widespread position closures rather than aggressive shorting, indicating that traders and institutions are stepping back amid uncertainty. Year-end balance sheet adjustments and profit-taking typically intensify this behavior in December.

Macro Events Loom Large

Beyond crypto-specific factors, macroeconomic developments are playing a decisive role. With multiple high-impact economic events unfolding this week, traders remain cautious about adding exposure. Institutions appear to be respecting Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle structure, despite ongoing narratives that “this time is different.”

For now, Bitcoin remains trapped between structural support and overhead resistance, with volatility likely to persist into the final days of the year.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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