Bitcoin Faces Potential Drop to $25K Amid Analyst Divergence

• Peter Brandt warns of an 80% decline: Bitcoin’s parabolic structure violation could mirror past cycles, targeting $25,000.

• Grayscale counters with bullish outlook: Institutional inflows and discounted BTC treasury valuations signal a bottom and 2026 highs.

• Long-term holders sell-off intensifies: Over 279,000 BTC (more than $25 billion) offloaded recently, offsetting ETF inflows of $287 million.

Explore Bitcoin price predictions amid analyst debates and market pressures. From potential crashes to institutional optimism, discover what lies ahead for BTC in 2025 and beyond. Stay informed on crypto trends today.

What Is the Latest Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2025?

Bitcoin price prediction for 2025 remains divided, with some experts signaling further declines and others projecting recovery. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently stated that Bitcoin’s current cycle has violated its parabolic advance, potentially leading to an 80% drop from recent highs, targeting around $25,000. This view contrasts with institutional perspectives, such as Grayscale’s, which highlight growing adoption as a buffer against downturns.

Source: X/Peter Brandt

Brandt’s analysis draws from historical patterns, noting that previous bull cycles ended with similar parabolic breaks, resulting in substantial corrections. As of late December 2025, external factors like potential exclusions of Bitcoin treasury strategies from the MSCI index or unwinding of the Yen carry trade could exacerbate selling pressure. The next significant review date is January 15, which may influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. Despite these concerns, other analysts foresee bullish momentum toward year-end and record highs in 2026, based on sustained demand signals.

How Are Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Impacting Current Prices?

Long-term holders (LTHs) of Bitcoin are playing a pivotal role in the asset’s price dynamics through intensified sell-offs. Data from Glassnode indicates that LTHs offloaded an average of 279,000 BTC daily last week, equivalent to over $25 billion at current valuations. This activity has deepened the supply pressure, countering positive developments like $287 million in net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs.

Source: Glassnode

These sales reflect profit-taking after Bitcoin’s rally, but they also highlight weakening demand fundamentals. In the shorter term, key support levels around $87,000 and resistance at $95,000 to $96,000 are drawing attention due to accumulated liquidity, potentially dictating near-term movements. Analysts from CryptoQuant emphasize maintaining conviction in uncertain times, as Ki Young Ju noted: “Many people are asking ‘what’s next,’ but in neutral and uncertain situations like this, I believe the right approach is to maintain your own conviction, hold your existing position, and wait.”

Source: CoinAnk

Grayscale’s Bullish Perspective on Bitcoin

Institutions like Grayscale offer a more optimistic Bitcoin price prediction, projecting new all-time highs exceeding $126,000 in 2026. The firm argues that the current cycle lacks the extreme parabolic surge seen in 2022-2025, attributing this to broader institutional adoption. Grayscale points to Bitcoin ETFs’ options positioning and BTC treasury firms trading at discounts to their modified net asset values (mNAVs) as evidence that the asset has likely bottomed.

Source: Grayscale

“Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect and that Bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year,” Grayscale stated. This stance underscores the role of corporate treasuries and financial products in stabilizing Bitcoin amid volatility. However, not all views align; Standard Chartered recently halved its 2025 year-end target from $200,000 to $100,000, reflecting broader analyst uncertainty.

Source: X

The lack of consensus among analysts, as highlighted by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, points to a neutral market phase. Such divergence is common in cryptocurrency markets, where macroeconomic events and on-chain metrics heavily influence sentiment.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Bitcoin Reach $25,000 in 2025 According to Peter Brandt?

Peter Brandt predicts Bitcoin could decline to $25,000 if the parabolic advance violation leads to an 80% correction, similar to past cycles. This forecast is based on technical analysis of historical bull market endings, though it depends on broader market catalysts like index exclusions.

What Drives Institutional Bitcoin Adoption in 2025?

Institutional adoption of Bitcoin in 2025 is driven by ETF inflows, corporate treasury strategies, and discounted valuations of BTC holdings. Firms like Grayscale highlight these as signs of a market bottom, potentially pushing prices to new highs despite short-term uncertainties—making it a key factor for long-term growth.

Key Takeaways

• Parabolic Break Warning: Peter Brandt’s analysis suggests Bitcoin’s structure violation could trigger a drop to $25,000, echoing 80% historical declines.
• Institutional Optimism: Grayscale views current discounts in BTC treasuries and ETF positioning as bullish signals for 2026 all-time highs above $126,000.
• LTH Sell-Off Pressure: With 279,000 BTC sold recently, monitor support levels at $87,000 to balance ETF inflows and maintain portfolio strategies.

Conclusion

Bitcoin price predictions for 2025 encapsulate a spectrum of views, from Peter Brandt’s cautionary $25,000 target due to parabolic breaks to Grayscale’s emphasis on institutional adoption driving highs beyond $126,000. Long-term holder sell-offs and upcoming MSCI reviews add layers of uncertainty, yet on-chain data and expert insights like those from CryptoQuant suggest holding steady. As the market evolves, investors should track key levels and macroeconomic shifts for informed decisions in the coming year.