New Zealand Dollar falls on RBNZ rate cut expectations, US Dollar holds firm

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pares early gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as near-certain expectations of another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) keep the Kiwi under sustained pressure. At the time of writing, NZD/USD is trading around 0.5593, easing after a brief, volatile spike to 0.5639 in the immediate reaction to the release of the delayed US labour data.

Earlier in the day, markets received the first official US employment data in weeks after delays caused by the government shutdown. The September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose 119K, strongly beating the 50K forecast, while August was revised down to show a 4K decline instead of the originally reported 22K increase. The Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.4%, slightly above expectations for 4.3%.

Additionally, the Labour Force Participation Rate improved slightly to 62.4% from 62.3. Wage growth came in softer than projected, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% MoM against the 0.3% estimate, while annual wage growth stood at 3.8% YoY, marginally above the 3.7% forecast. Average Weekly Hours held steady at 34.2.

The mixed labour data did little to alter expectations around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Markets had already been trimming rate-cut bets after a series of cautious comments from Fed officials, who warned that another cut in December could risk reigniting inflation pressures. Some policymakers acknowledged that the labour market is cooling, but stressed that it remains resilient, reinforcing the argument for a careful and measured approach to easing.

In New Zealand, markets are awaiting next week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy meeting, with another rate cut already fully priced in. Traders widely expect the central bank to deliver another round of easing after October’s surprise 50-basis-point cut, with softening inflation expectations, weak business confidence and subdued domestic demand all reinforcing the case for lower rates.

Looking ahead, traders will monitor New Zealand’s October trade data due on Friday, including Exports, Imports, and the monthly and annual Trade Balance readings. In the US, focus turns to the S&P Global flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) for November, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and its accompanying inflation-expectation measures.

Economic Indicator

Trade Balance NZD (YoY)

Trade balance, released by Statistics New Zealand, is the difference between the value of country’s exports and imports, over a period of year. A positive balance means that exports exceed imports, a negative ones means the opposite. Positive trade balance illustrates high competitiveness of country’s economy.