Cboe Launches Cboe Predicts With New S&P 500 Event Contracts

• Cboe Global Markets has unveiled Cboe Predicts, a new event contracts platform linked to daily S&P 500 closing levels.
• The contracts use a three-outcome payout structure, offering full, partial, or zero payouts depending on forecast accuracy.
• Charles Schwab will distribute the products, while clearing will be handled by the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC).
• Initial launches are expected in Q2 2026, with June identified as the target rollout period.
• Cboe is focusing on financial market outcomes rather than sports or political event contracts.

Cboe Enters Prediction Markets With New Event Contract Structure

Cboe Global Markets has announced its entry into the prediction markets sector through the launch of Cboe Predicts, a new suite of event contracts tied to the daily performance of the S&P 500.

The move expands Cboe’s derivatives offerings as interest in regulated event-based trading products continues to grow. Unlike many prediction market platforms that rely on binary outcomes, Cboe Predicts introduces a proprietary three-outcome payout model designed around market forecasts.

The contracts are based on daily S&P 500 closing levels and use Mini-SPX (XSP) contracts as the underlying reference instrument. By linking the product to a widely traded benchmark, Cboe is building on an existing and liquid market ecosystem.

Three-Outcome Model Offers Full and Partial Payouts

Under the Cboe Predicts framework, traders can receive one of three outcomes based on forecast accuracy. A correct prediction generates a full $100 payout per contract. Traders who correctly predict market direction but miss the exact target may still receive a partial payout within what Cboe calls a “Plus Zone.” Incorrect predictions result in no payout.

The structure differs from the traditional yes-or-no format commonly used in prediction markets, offering an additional layer of flexibility while maintaining defined risk.

Schwab Partnership Supports Planned June Launch

Cboe has partnered with Charles Schwab to distribute the contracts to retail investors. The partnership was formalized around June 19, 2026, ahead of the planned launch window.

The contracts will trade on the Cboe Options Exchange, while centralized clearing and settlement will be handled by the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC), which supports listed U.S. options markets.

The company has also expanded educational resources to help retail traders understand event contracts before launch. Initial products are expected to debut in June 2026.

Cboe’s entry increases competition in the prediction markets sector, where operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket have gained attention. However, Cboe is focusing exclusively on financial market-based contracts rather than sports or political events.

Earlier, Kalshi reported more than $2 billion in revenue and began exploring a potential IPO while continuing to navigate regulatory challenges. The development underscores growing interest in regulated event-based trading products as new competitors enter the market.

By leveraging the SPX options ecosystem, OCC clearing infrastructure, and Schwab’s distribution network, Cboe is bringing prediction-style trading products into the established U.S. options market framework.