10.9 billion dollars in BTC options to expire Friday! What are traders preparing for?

Bitcoin started the week around $64,600. According to CoinGecko data, while the world’s largest cryptocurrency saw a 0.8% gain in the last 24 hours, it has slipped nearly 13% over the past month. The price remains approximately 50% below last October’s $126,080 high. Analysts note that, although selling pressure has eased, buyers have not yet returned with significant force.

Sideways movement dominates the market

James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, remarked that despite incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s signals of a tightening monetary policy, crypto assets have shown more resilience than expected. In Butterfill’s view, Bitcoin’s limited decline may not indicate robust fundamental strength, but it does show markets are absorbing the Fed’s hawkish messaging better than anticipated.

Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, also highlighted the importance of Bitcoin’s muted response following Warsh’s statements. Sun interprets this as a sign that selling pressure has largely been exhausted, rather than a true return of demand. A sustained upward move, he suggests, would require a revival in risk appetite and a more supportive environment from long-term bond yields.

ETF outflows and liquidation clusters under scrutiny

Bitunix analyst Dean Chen described current price action as a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, rather than a clear trend. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to Chen, still reflect a pattern of net distribution. United States funds saw $90.7 million in outflows on June 18, pushing monthly outflows near $4 billion. SoSoValue data shows the weekly pace has slowed to several hundred million dollars.

Chen pointed out that downside pressure on the liquidation map appears more pronounced. Around $61,900, there is a long-position liquidation cluster of about $1.3 billion, while roughly $870 million in short positions are clustered near $64,800. Bitcoin’s avoidance of dipping into the lower level is seen as a stabilizing factor for volatility.

All eyes on regulation and Friday’s expiry

According to Stephen Wundke, Strategy and Revenue Director at Algoz Technologies, decisive market drivers could take shape in the next few weeks. Wundke pointed to the upcoming Clarity Act vote, targeted for July 4 in the United States, as a particularly significant event. The Clarity Act is a proposed framework to define which regulatory bodies oversee areas of the digital asset market.

Mini glossary: The Clarity Act is known in the U.S. as a draft law aiming to clarify which regulatory framework digital assets fall under. Markets are closely watching such measures for their potential impact on institutional demand and trading infrastructure.

Wundke further noted that a lasting ceasefire with Iran could bring more visible inflation relief in the U.S. within two to three months. He also mentioned that ETF inflows above $20 billion in 2025 are projected to reverse to $3.2 billion in outflows by 2026. According to Wundke, Bitcoin has declined about 26% since the start of the year, while a basket of major tokens has dropped nearly 50%.

Below the headline price trends, new investor behaviors are emerging. Peter Smedas, head of marketing at Chainflip, reported that Bitcoin has been the most traded asset on the platform over the past 90 days, with $239 million in volume. Smedas noted that some investors now prefer borrowing against Bitcoin as collateral rather than selling outright.

The most significant test in the short term will come this Friday. Wundke cautions that the $10.9 billion expiry in Bitcoin options could trigger sharp market swings as traders search for direction. On Myriad, a prediction market, participants now price the chance of Bitcoin falling to $55,000 at 70%, up 5 points from the previous week.

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