Nvidia Stock is Trailing the Nasdaq 100 in 2026: Is it a Good Buy?

Key Insights

• Nvidia stock remains below its recent high after entering correction territory.
• The company continues to expand across AI infrastructure, networking, and CPUs.
• Technical indicators point to a potential breakout toward new highs.

Nvidia stock price has retreated in recent weeks, falling about 11% from its all-time high and entering correction territory. Despite the pullback, NVDA remains up nearly 10% this year, although it has lagged the broader Nasdaq 100 Index, which has gained about 20%.

The recent weakness comes even as Nvidia continues to deliver strong financial results and expand its presence across several fast-growing technology markets. Technical indicators also suggest the current decline may represent a consolidation phase rather than a long-term trend reversal.

Nvidia Stock is Lagging Behind the Nasdaq 100 Index

Nvidia, the world’s biggest company, has risen by less than 10% this year and is continually underperforming the broader market. This performance happened, even as the company continues its strong growth across key areas.

For example, its financial results showed that its revenue and profitability growth has accelerated this year. Some major news suggests that it has more room to grow in the foreseeable future.

The first quarter revenue rose by over 85% to over $81 billion, continuing a trend that has been going on since the AI boom started. At the same time, Nvidia’s profitability has continued to boom, with its net income rising close to $60 billion.

Therefore, the main reason behind the underperformance is that investors have focused on other areas in the AI boom. For one, the top gainers in the Nasdaq 100 Index this year are companies like Sandisk, Western Digital, Micron, and Seagate. These firms are top names in the memory industry.

Investors have also focused on other semiconductor companies. For example, companies like Marvell Technology, Intel, AMD, and Lumentum have been among the top gainers. Marvell has jumped because of the recent $2 billion investment from Nvidia, while Intel has had some major announcements, including a recent one that it will be used by Apple.

NVDA stock has also struggled because of the ongoing competition from companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft.

Nvidia Has Some Key Catalysts Ahead

Looking ahead, Nvidia has some major catalysts ahead. First, a recent report showed that Nvidia has become the biggest player in the Ethernet switch industry, which is valued at over $15.4 billion. It grew by 40% in the first quarter.

According to IDC, Nvidia has become the number one player in the data center Ethernet switching industry. This growth will likely continue in the coming years as the data center industry grows.

The company is also aiming to grow its Central Processing Unit (CPU) industry, which it launched recently. It has recently launched Windows CPUs, Vera, which it believes will become a $200 billion business. This business will disrupt the business of other companies like Intel and AMD.

Nvidia is also expected to continue growing its business in China, where it has started to sell its H200 chips. As a result, analysts expect that its revenue will come in at $92 billion, up by 96% YoY. It will then jump by 80% in the third quarter to over $102 billion.

For the year, analysts expect its revenue to reach $391 billion, followed by $551 billion next year.

Nvidia Share Price Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that the NVDA stock has pulled back in the past few weeks. It retreated from a record high of $236 to a low of $200, its lowest level on June 9.

The stock has formed a descending channel in this period. This channel is part of the bullish flag pattern, an important continuation sign. Also, it is about to move above the key resistance at $212, its previous all-time high.

The stock has remained above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has provided it with substantial support. Therefore, the stock will likely continue rising in the coming months, with the next key level to watch being at $235.

A surge above that price will point to further gains, potentially to the psychological point of $300 as some analysts predict.

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