Does SpaceX Have a Path to $5 Trillion? It Might Have Less to Do With Space and More to Do With AI

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Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), or SpaceX, have continued their ascent on Tuesday, gaining close to 5% and closing above the $200 per-share mark. Of course, shares were up much more intraday, peaking at close to $225 per share before quite a steep drop. Indeed, if you want extreme levels of volatility, you’ve got it with shares of SpaceX.

Depending on when you picked up the stock, it was either a decent day or a disaster. Perhaps the company, like Elon Musk, has no upper bound when it comes to ambition. And that’s probably why the shares have continued to rocket higher despite surpassing even most bullish price targets on Wall Street ($190 per share currently held by Oppenheimer).

There’s no question that it’s hard to evaluate the company, given the massive TAM (total addressable market) outlined in the S-1, but the risks are difficult to even begin to fathom. Indeed, there’s no guarantee that orbital data centers are going to scale such that SpaceX’s current price of admission makes sense.

While SpaceX is genuinely one of a kind and, with that, worth an out-of-this-world kind of premium price tag under Elon Musk’s leadership, it’s just hard to tell how high the name can fly and how the epic melt-up out of the gate will end. The first day of trading was surprisingly tame, with shares lifting off, finishing the day at around $160 and change.

A sense of FOMO is setting in for some

Today, the stock is looking at a $206 per share opening for Wednesday’s session. And it’s not hard to think that a lot of investors who passed on participating in the first day or two of trade are starting to feel just a little bit of FOMO (that’s the fear of missing out).

Add the momentum chasers to the mix and the meme-like nature of the run, and perhaps betting against the company could be riskier than it sounds, even as the market cap swells past $2.7 trillion and the company rises further in the ranks, surpassing companies such as Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).

Could it be that shares could join the $5 trillion club alongside Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)? I have no idea, but there’s no denying the magnitude of enthusiasm behind the company that might take us to Mars and even beyond.

Let’s not forget about the potential of robotics on the moon and, of course, the terrestrial data centers that are paying the bills in the here and now. In my view, AI is where the real opportunity lies for a company that’s setting its sights on the stars.

AI might be the path to a $5T market cap

It’s nice to think about where SpaceX could go in the distant future as it builds the rails and infrastructure to go to the moon, Mars, and beyond. But, at the same time, the voyage would be a whole lot easier, at least in my humble opinion, if the AI revolution were to pay big dividends, rather than cost big money. On the surface, SpaceX is, indeed, a rocket and satellite communications juggernaut. It’s one of a kind.

Following the merger with Grok maker xAI, the $60 billion acquisition of AI coding firm Cursor, and the continued buildout of Colossus AI data centers, it’s apparent that AI will need to start paying the bills if some of SpaceX’s more ambitious, forward-thinking potential projects are going to hit the spot. Whether it’s asteroid mining or sending robots into space, the job will just be made easier if AI monetization booms and the technology helps the firm tackle the complexities of being at the frontier of the space economy.

Whether it’s building more data centers on Earth to rent to firms like Anthropic or Google, doubling down on future sites (think Colossus 3 and beyond) to help Grok make up for lost time, it’s clear, at least in my view, that SpaceX needs to keep up the pace on the ground with AI if it’s to increase its odds of success in orbit or on the moon.

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