Bitcoin Bottom Not Expected Until Q4, Five Trends This Week

Bitcoin opened the second week of June under pressure, with traders bracing for continued macro headwinds even as a relief bounce lurks on the near horizon. The market is still nowhere near declaring a bottom, and several observers argue that fresh bear-market lows could come later this year, despite a tentative price uptick in the most recent weekly close.

Investors are watching a cluster of catalysts: looming US inflation data, the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy, and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict. On-chain metrics and sentiment gauges, meanwhile, point to a confluence of factors that historically precede a potential reversal, even as risk assets remain under pressure.

Key takeaways

• Analysts anticipate a relief rally for BTC in the near term, but traders largely agree that the bear-market bottom remains months away, with a potential trough targeted in the second half of the year.
• May CPI and PPI data are set to shape expectations for the US rate path amid ongoing geopolitical tension, with markets pricing in further tightening scenarios.
• On-chain signals show a shift away from prior speculative excess, even as the market’s broad supply dynamics and key moving averages suggest the risk of a new low remains on the table.
• Investor sentiment sits at historically low levels, signaling “extreme fear,” which some researchers view as a potential precursor to a contrarian buying opportunity.

Bear-market timing remains unsettled despite a cautious bounce

As the first trading days of June unfold, Bitcoin’s price action has delivered a modest relief rally but without decisive improvement that would reframe the macro backdrop. Traders highlighted that the most recent weekly candle closed on a bearish note, leaving an imbalance around a notable level—an observation that implies a potential upside target should higher-timeframe demand reemerge.

Among market participants, there is agreement that even if a short-term bounce materializes, the decisive bear-market low is not yet in sight. Several analysts emphasized that BTC’s recent price action breached key support levels faster than anticipated, underscoring the fragility of near-term momentum. One prominent trader noted that BTC has already swept through the 60,000 level more quickly than expected, with expectations of a period of sideways movement and modest gains through June, followed by a more definitive low later in the year.

Other voices framed the trajectory around longer-running technical lines. A well-known crypto commentator pointed to a break below a major long-term trend line, suggesting a rebound could occur over a 1–3 month horizon before prices test new lows later in the year. The central takeaway from these analyses is a broad expectation of continued volatility and a potential bottom not yet in, even as the market looks for reasons to stabilize.

The wider narrative echoes a similar assessment from a variety of market watchers who track price action against major moving averages. The 200-week moving average, a widely watched gauge of macro-trend direction, recently featured in discussions about whether BTC can stage a meaningful bounce before testing lower levels again. While a brief relief rally could unfold, analysts say the ultimate bottom, if it arrives, may not arrive until the back half of the year.

Inflation data and the rate outlook remain the crucible for risk assets

Inflation data due this week—specifically May’s CPI and PPI—will be pivotal for determining how aggressively investors expect the Federal Reserve to tighten or hold. The last round of inflation figures came in hot, fueling concerns that price pressures remain entrenched and that monetary policy could stay restrictive for longer than some had anticipated.

Market chatter around the Fed’s path has grown more explicit in recent days. A widely cited forecast from a respected market briefing pointed to a BASE case in which the Fed lifts rates again by early 2027, with a non-trivial chance—around 17%—of three rate hikes by April 2027. This stands in contrast to earlier months when traders had priced in more aggressive easing later in the decade and even a sequence of rate cuts in 2026. The shifting probability curve underscores how inflation dynamics and policy expectations can reframe risk appetite across equities and crypto alike.

Meanwhile, equities have shown resilience at times, spurred by stronger-facing tech sectors, but the macro undercurrent remains unsettled. The broader backdrop—geopolitical tensions and the possibility of fresh policy surprises—continues to tilt risk assets toward caution. In this environment, Bitcoin’s fate remains tethered to how inflation data evolves and how the Fed responds to evolving price signals.

On the geopolitical front, a flare-up in tension surrounding the US-Iran dynamic has amplified volatility. While political rhetoric from leadership can momentarily assuage risk-on assets, the reliability of such assurances in stabilizing markets remains limited. The interplay between war dynamics, commodity prices, and macro policy continues to complicate the path for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as investors weigh hedging strategies against potential macro surprises.

Oil markets have added to the macro shuffle, with crude prices moving higher amid the latest developments, providing another variable that can feed through to inflation and the broader risk-asset backdrop.

On-chain signals frame a cautious optimism for a potential reversal

Despite the macro headwinds, on-chain data paints a more nuanced picture. A trio of indicators tracked by analysts suggest that speculative excess from the late-stage bull run has retraced, creating a less frothy base for possible stabilization.

Key observations center on the long-term and short-term SOPR (spent output profit ratio) ratios, the proportion of Bitcoin holders currently underwater or at break-even, and the 200-day moving-average reference point. A respected on-chain analysis team highlighted that the LTH-SOPR and STH-SOPR ratios have fallen materially, indicating that long-term holders are not realizing the outsized profits seen during the previous bull run. In parallel, the share of Bitcoin held in profit has declined toward the mid-range, with supply in profit hovering around the 47% mark—meaning more than half of the market’s participants are at break-even or in a loss position. Such a shift contrasts with bull-market phases, when a much larger share of supply sits in profit.

Additionally, CryptoQuant’s quick-take notes a broader “demand shortage,” suggesting that underlying liquidity and speculative fervor have cooled as equities and tech stocks draw capital away from crypto. The combination of these signals—reduced profit-taking by long-term holders, a higher propensity to hold rather than realize gains, and a cooling in demand—helps to explain why some analysts see room for a cautious, measured rebound rather than a decisive resumed uptrend.

Sentiment readings point to an unusual, contrarian setup

Market mood across the crypto space remains at one of its most bearish readings in recent memory. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has printed a score in the single digits, underscoring a climate of “extreme fear.” Such sentiment levels have historically appeared near price bottoms, prompting researchers to argue that the crowd may have already discounted much of the downside. Santiment, a well-known sentiment analytics firm, flagged the current wave of pessimism as among the strongest since mid-February, noting that such moments have sometimes signaled a ripe environment for patient buyers willing to go against the prevailing mood.

In practical terms, observers caution that sentiment alone cannot forecast exact turning points. Still, the consensus is that when traders declare an asset class as “dead” or write off its prospects, it can reduce the pool of sellers and create a subtler path to potential stabilization and accumulation. This dynamic, coupled with on-chain cooling and macro resilience in select risk assets, keeps the door open for an eventual macro-driven rally—even if the near term remains fragile.

What to watch next

Readers should monitor the upcoming inflation prints and the resulting shifts in expectations for Fed policy, as well as evolving geopolitical developments that could alter risk premiums across markets. On-chain metrics—especially the relationship between long-term and short-term holders, and the trajectory of supply in profit—will continue to provide a useful lens on whether the market is building a foundation for a future uptick or sliding toward new lows. Finally, sentiment signals merit watching for any signs of a sustained shift from fear toward a constructive, risk-on stance.

As the week unfolds, investors will be weighing whether the macro and on-chain signals align toward a bottoming process or a renewed leg lower. With risk appetite historically sensitive to inflation surprises and policy guidance, the path for Bitcoin remains uncertain, even as some indicators suggest a quieter period of selling pressure could be underway. The next few data releases and market reactions will be essential in clarifying whether June marks the start of a stabilization phase or simply a pause before a deeper leg down.

This article was originally published as Bitcoin Bottom Not Expected Until Q4, Five Trends This Week on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.