Kalshi and Polymarket See Rising Bitcoin Downside Risk

TLDR

• Prediction markets now assign a strong probability that Bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year.
• Kalshi traders price a 50 percent chance of Bitcoin dropping under $50,000.
• Polymarket contracts show only a 30 percent chance that Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026.
• SoSo Value data shows 2.4 billion dollars left in US-listed Bitcoin ETFs in May.
• USDT and USDC have gained market share as traders move into stablecoins.

Bitcoin has faced rising expectations of deeper losses as prediction market traders price in a stronger chance of sub-$50,000 levels this year.

On Kalshi, participants now assign a 66% probability that bitcoin falls below $55,000 before year-end and a 50% chance it drops under $50,000. The same market shows a 31% likelihood of prices sliding beneath $40,000. Contracts on Polymarket carry nearly identical odds, with traders there pricing in about a 67% chance of sub-$55,000 levels and better-than-even odds of a break below $50,000.

Polymarket Prices: Weak Bitcoin Versus Gold

Recent fund flows have added to the cautious mood. Data from SoSo Value shows investors pulled $2.4 billion from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs in May. In the first two trading days of June alone, another $1 billion left those products, according to the same dataset.

Those withdrawals came as bitcoin moved toward $65,000 during the week, with sellers pushing the price down roughly 37% over the past year. Gold, by contrast, has gained about 33% over the same period, while losing around 1.5% in the last month.

On Polymarket, traders now give bitcoin just a 30% chance of outperforming gold in 2026, based on current contract pricing.

Stablecoins Gain Share During Bitcoin Slide

Beyond crypto markets, equity performance has also entered the discussion. K33 Research wrote in a Tuesday report that investors increasingly compare bitcoin’s returns with artificial intelligence-linked stocks, many of which continue to post strong gains as major equity indexes trade near record highs.

Vetle Lunde of K33 Research stated in that report that many market participants consider the opportunity cost of holding bitcoin too high while AI-related companies continue to rally. Despite that view, K33 Research added that it still sees bitcoin as undervalued relative to equities over a longer time frame.

Although some traders are betting on further declines, capital has not exited digital assets entirely. Market data shows that the combined market share of USDT and USDC has grown during bitcoin’s move toward $66,000.

The rise in stablecoin balances suggests that traders are converting holdings into digital dollars rather than leaving the crypto market, choosing to wait in cash-like assets before committing to new positions.

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