Wintermute: Long-Term Funds Are Buying BTC in OTC Tranches Amid ETF Outflows

TLDR:

• Wintermute confirms long-term funds are buying BTC in OTC tranches with an 18-month price outlook.
• BTC and ETH ETFs shed nearly $2B in combined outflows over ten days, the longest streak since launch.
• Wintermute places key BTC downside support between $60,000 and $65,000 amid summer weakness.
• Crypto missed two straight weeks of the equity rally as AI earnings drove rotation into Nasdaq stocks.

Crypto market maker Wintermute reports that long-term funds have begun accumulating Bitcoin through OTC desks in tranches, even as spot prices sit near $72,000.

The firm’s June 1 market update says these buyers see current levels as attractive on an 18-month horizon. The move comes as BTC and ETH ETFs recorded nearly $2 billion in combined outflows over ten days, marking the longest redemption streak since their launch.

BTC OTC Desks Record Quiet Accumulation From Long-Duration Holders

BTC OTC activity is picking up from longer-term oriented funds, Wintermute confirmed in its weekly update. The firm stated that it is “seeing longer-term holders start to TWAP into the market through the OTC desk, with no appetite to call the exact bottom but a view that these levels look attractive on an 18-month basis.”

The move comes in tranches rather than single large orders, a method that avoids moving spot price.

Wintermute placed key downside support between $60,000 and $65,000. That range represents the floor longer-term holders appear to be referencing when sizing their positions.

The firm described the setup as “relatively weak into the summer months” but noted the underlying cycle looks more like a reset than a structural breakdown.

The OTC accumulation stands in contrast to what is happening in the ETF market. BTC spot ETFs recorded approximately $1.4 billion in outflows during the most recent week, extending the longest redemption streak since their launch.

ETH ETFs shed around $240 million over the same period. Between May 20 and May 29, combined BTC and ETH ETF outflows reached nearly $2 billion.

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, began selling during this window as well. That development added to bearish sentiment across crypto-native circles.

Wintermute noted that “the bid that carried BTC from $70k to $80k in April is gone,” with the marginal dollar now sitting in Nvidia, Dell, and small-cap equities instead.

Crypto Sits Out the Equity Rally as Macro Pressure Persists

Wintermute noted that crypto has now missed two consecutive weeks of the broader risk-asset rally. The firm said “the risk-on rotation went into Nasdaq and the Russell 2k” while crypto, described as “the most risk-sensitive cross-asset class, got skipped.” The S&P 500 logged its ninth straight green week, gaining 1.9%, while the Nasdaq rose 8% on the month.

The macro backdrop explains part of the divergence. April PCE printed at 3.8% headline, with core rising to 3.3%. The bond market is pricing a 35–40% probability of a rate hike before year-end.

Wintermute flagged that “it’s not unthinkable to see stagflation and double dip inflation pop up again in Q3,” particularly with AI-driven demand keeping the broader economy hot.

Equities are climbing through that backdrop on the strength of an AI earnings story. Wintermute observed that “equities aren’t rallying because the macro improved — they’re rallying because AI earnings keep printing and the market is choosing to look through everything else.” Crypto has no equivalent narrative, leaving it fully exposed to the same headwinds the equity market is bypassing.

Near-term catalysts include Wednesday’s CPI and PPI data and the Monday launch of CME Nasdaq crypto index futures.

Wintermute identified ETF flows as the key metric to watch, noting that “sustained inflows marked the institutional return in April” and that their continued absence is “what’s keeping spot heavy.”

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