Wintermute Says Long-Term Funds Are Buying Bitcoin in OTC Tranches as ETFs Bleed

TLDR

• Wintermute says long-term funds are buying BTC in staggered OTC tranches.
• NS3.AI reported about $2B in outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
• Wintermute placed key BTC downside support around $60K to $65K.
• Institutions absorbed 1.63M BTC since ETF launch while 435K BTC was mined.
• Institutional holdings reached 2.56M BTC, or 12.7% of circulating supply.

Wintermute said long-term institutional funds are purchasing Bitcoin through over-the-counter tranches, using staggered execution rather than large public exchange orders. The firm said these buyers view current Bitcoin levels as attractive over an 18-month investment horizon.

The activity points to continued demand from large investors even as public market flows have weakened across crypto investment products. OTC execution allows buyers to absorb larger amounts of BTC without creating immediate price movement on visible spot exchanges.

Wintermute said downside support remains near the $60,000 to $65,000 range, while Bitcoin has faced pressure despite strength in broader risk assets. The firm said crypto has lagged other markets for two consecutive weeks.

ETF Outflows Contrast With Institutional Accumulation

According to NS3.AI, about $2 billion has exited Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds, showing weaker demand from public ETF channels. Wintermute said fresh capital has instead moved toward AI stocks and small-cap equities.

The contrast has created a split between short-term ETF flows and longer-horizon institutional buying through OTC desks. Public ETFs have shown outflows, while large funds continue to build Bitcoin exposure away from exchange order books.

Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, about 435,000 BTC has been mined, while institutions have absorbed about 1.63 million BTC. Institutional holdings now represent about 12.7% of circulating Bitcoin supply, or roughly 2.56 million BTC.

Crypto Liquidity Remains Concentrated in Blue-Chip Assets

Wintermute’s market data indicates that institutional crypto liquidity remains concentrated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other large-cap digital assets. The firm said capital entering through ETFs and digital asset treasury companies has not broadly rotated into smaller tokens.

Trading activity has remained focused on a narrow set of major tokens, even as the share of BTC and ETH slipped from 54% in 2023 to 49% in 2025. The shift came from stronger volume in other large-cap assets rather than a wider altcoin rotation.

Wintermute also reported that altcoin rallies have become shorter, with the average move lasting about 19 days in 2025 compared with 61 days in 2024. The firm said themes such as memecoin launchpads and perpetual DEXs continued to appear, but follow-through remained limited.

Options Activity Shows More Structured Crypto Trading

Wintermute said OTC options activity more than doubled year over year in 2025, with volumes building into year-end. Notional volumes were almost four times higher, while trade counts were more than two times higher than at the start of the year.

The firm said options flow has shifted toward systematic yield strategies and portfolio risk management. This marks a change from earlier activity that was more often linked to one-off directional positions.

Wintermute’s comments suggest long-term funds are using structured execution and derivatives while public ETF flows remain under pressure. The current market setup shows Bitcoin accumulation through OTC tranches alongside weaker broader crypto participation.

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