Viasat (VSAT) Stock Plunges 9% Post-Earnings Despite Massive 846% Yearly Surge

Key Takeaways

• Fourth-quarter EBITDA reached $370M while revenue hit $1.2B, falling short of analyst expectations on both metrics
• The company delivered EPS of -$0.02, crushing the -$0.43 consensus estimate by 95%
• Shares tumbled approximately 9% on Friday following the report, despite climbing 846% year-over-year
• Management projects mid-single-digit revenue expansion and stable EBITDA for fiscal 2027
• Barclays maintained its Equalweight stance with a $49 price objective, suggesting shares may be overextended

Viasat (VSAT) presented a challenging earnings report on Thursday that left investors unimpressed. The satellite communications provider watched its shares plummet roughly 9% on Friday, settling around $79, following quarterly results that came close to—but ultimately fell short of—Wall Street’s expectations.

Viasat, Inc., VSAT

The company’s fourth-quarter EBITDA registered at $370 million on total revenue of $1.2 billion. Market analysts had anticipated $383 million and $1.2 billion respectively. Revenue climbed 2% compared to the prior year, though it missed the StreetAccount consensus by 2.4%. Adjusted EBITDA declined 1% year-over-year and underperformed consensus estimates by 3.5%.

However, the earnings per share metric told a more encouraging narrative. Viasat reported EPS of -$0.02 versus the anticipated -$0.43—representing a remarkable 95% outperformance. Wall Street analysts forecast the company will achieve profitability in fiscal 2027, with projected EPS reaching $1.38.

Forward Outlook Meets Expectations

Management’s fiscal 2027 guidance projects mid-single-digit revenue expansion with EBITDA remaining relatively stable or modestly higher compared to the previous year. The company anticipates capital expenditures between $950 million and $1 billion, generating approximately $180 million in free cash flow (excluding Ligado lump sum receipts).

The Defense and Advanced Technologies division delivered strong performance, recording 12% revenue growth year-over-year in Q4. Meanwhile, Communication Services experienced a 2% contraction. Management expects defense revenues to expand in the mid-teens range, while Communication Services should see low single-digit advancement.

Net debt decreased sequentially to $4.8 billion. Quarterly free cash flow totaled $24 million—significantly below Barclays’ $91 million projection. Contract awards expanded 9% year-over-year, reaching $1.3 billion.

Riding the Space Sector Wave

A 9% single-session decline would typically be significant for any equity. For Viasat, it represents just a minor correction on a spectacular trajectory. Through Thursday’s closing bell, VSAT shares had skyrocketed 846% over the trailing twelve months.

This explosive rally stems partially from tangible business achievements—including securing a contract with the U.S. Space Force—and partially from widespread enthusiasm surrounding the space industry. SpaceX’s potential public offering, which could establish a valuation approaching $2 trillion, has elevated optimism throughout the sector.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has surged 437% during the identical twelve-month window. EchoStar, benefiting from SpaceX spectrum arrangements, has advanced approximately 557%.

Barclays reaffirmed its Equalweight recommendation on VSAT Friday, maintaining a $49 price objective. With shares trading near $79 and approaching their 52-week peak of $89.78, the firm’s target suggests substantial downside potential. InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment similarly indicates the stock may be trading above reasonable valuation levels.

Maritime revenue streams are projected to reach stability by late 2027. The Equatys D2D initiative remains on schedule for commercial deployment in 2029.

The post Viasat (VSAT) Stock Plunges 9% Post-Earnings Despite Massive 846% Yearly Surge appeared first on Blockonomi.