Powell likely to remain Fed chair until term ends in 2026 amid Warsh transition

## Market Snapshot

The market for “Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?” is currently priced at 0.8% YES, down from 1% 24 hours ago. The May 15 sub-market shows a notable increase to 27.5% YES, up from 22% yesterday.

## Key Takeaways

– Jerome Powell’s decision to remain on the Fed Board after his term ends appears to reduce the likelihood of an early exit. – Stephen Miran’s statement suggests no significant power division with Kevin Warsh’s pending chairmanship. – Market activity indicates a decreased chance of Powell stepping down before May 14, 2026.

## Article Body

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran has addressed concerns about Jerome Powell’s continued presence on the Fed Board of Governors, stating that it does not pose a division of authority as Kevin Warsh prepares to assume the chair role. Powell, whose term as chair ends May 15, 2026, is set to remain on the board until investigations into Fed building renovations are concluded. This development comes amid pressures from the Trump administration for rate cuts, highlighting the ongoing tensions between Fed independence and executive influence. Warsh’s appointment is pending Senate confirmation, anticipated in the week leading up to May 11.

## Market Interpretation

The statement by Miran appears to be supportive of NO outcomes in the market regarding Powell’s early departure. This is reflected in the decreased likelihood of scenarios where Powell steps down before May 14, 2026. The impact of this development is categorized as high, given the significant drop in the probability of Powell leaving before his term officially ends.

## What to Watch

Key events to monitor include the Senate’s confirmation process for Kevin Warsh, scheduled for the week of May 11. Additionally, any public statements from President Trump or influential senators could alter market expectations. Watch for updates on the investigation into Fed building renovations, as these outcomes may influence Powell’s decisions regarding his tenure on the board.

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