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Toncoin surged +36% to $1.88 on May 5, 2026, following Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s announcement that the platform would take over the TON blockchain from the TON Foundation.
Network fees plummeted sixfold to around $0.0005 per transfer, an 83% reduction that positions TON as one of the cheapest layer-1 networks for micropayments.
The key question is whether Telegram can maintain its decentralized credibility while implementing the promised infrastructure upgrades within two to three weeks.
Trading volume soared to over $529M, a 600% increase, with TON’s market cap rising to over $5Bn, a +35% gain on the day. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum remained relatively stable, highlighting the uniqueness of this move within the ecosystem.
(SOURCE: TradingView)
The Toncoin network fee has been updated from approximately 0.00234 TON to a standardized rate of 0.00039 TON per transaction, regardless of network congestion. This predictability removes barriers for developers of Telegram mini-apps, allowing them to plan transaction costs effectively.
Durov emphasized “tech superiority” with the launch of a revamped ton.org, new developer tools, and performance upgrades as part of the “Make TON Great Again” roadmap, aiming for fully feeless transactions.
Analysts viewed this change as a crucial step for developers and users onboarding, especially as Telegram becomes TON’s largest validator, impacting block production and governance. The network now has a competitive edge over others like Solana, thanks to Telegram’s vast user base.
The announcement led to a significant market response, with meme token Dogs rallying over +110% and Notcoin (NOT) climbing +36%. Overall, the combined market cap of TON ecosystem tokens surged 66% over 24 hours, reflecting a bullish long-term outlook for this development.
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TON entered the announcement trading near $1.38 and printed $1.85 within 24 hours, breaking through several short-term resistance levels in a single session on 600% volume expansion.
The Relative Strength Index on the 14-period reading climbed above 72, placing the token in technically overbought territory, with strong momentum, but with consolidation risk building.
The key support level on any pullback is $1.65, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move. If Toncoin holds above that level, the structure opens a retest of the $1.84 swing high and a potential extension toward $1.98 on the Fibonacci projection.
A break below $1.65 shifts focus to the $1.54–$1.60 support zone, where buyers would need to reassert before the rally thesis resets.
Bull case: TON holds above $1.65 on any near-term consolidation, volume remains elevated above $300 million daily, and Telegram delivers the validator transition and developer tooling on the two-to-three-week schedule. In that scenario, the $1.84 resistance gives way, and $1.98 becomes the next measured target.
Base case: TON pulls back from overbought RSI levels to test the $1.65 support zone, stabilizes there, and enters a consolidation phase between $1.65 and $1.84 while the market waits for confirmation of Telegram’s operational changes. Buyers hold the 38.2% retracement and position ahead of the next MTONGA roadmap phase.
Bear case / Invalidation: A break below $1.65 with sustained volume selling pushes TON into the $1.54–$1.60 support zone. If Telegram’s validator rollout is delayed or the fee update encounters technical friction, the announcement premium unwinds and the token revisits pre-announcement structure near $1.38.
The key takeaway isn’t just the +36% price increase but what Telegram’s control means for the TON ecosystem. With 950 million users, Telegram needs a blockchain capable of handling consumer-level transaction volumes.
Reducing the transfer fee to $0.0005 aims to make this infrastructure seamless for users, potentially spurring broader crypto adoption.
However, there’s concern about centralization due to the shift from an independent foundation to a corporate validator, which could introduce risks that the original TON design aimed to avoid.
Still, the market reaction, with a $1Bn increase in market cap, a +600% rise in volume, and ecosystem tokens up 66%, indicates that investors are currently favoring scalability over decentralization.
The sustainability of this repricing depends on Telegram’s successful rollout over the next few weeks and on the advancement of its MTONGA roadmap towards feeless transactions. Upcoming updates, activating the fixed 0.00039 TON fee and on-chain visibility of validator transitions, will provide further clarity.
EXPLORE: Google’s Gemini AI Predicts the Price of XRP by the End of May 2026
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