Solana Price Prediction: Why Is the SOL Price Still Dropping? Analyst Weighs In

Solana is trading near $85.45, down 1.70% on the day and struggling to hold above key support. The 100-day SMA sits at $91.36, well above current price, and the 4-hour chart shows the SOL price below the 100 period SMA at $85.65. 

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows notes that there is no change in structure for Solana Treasury companies, and he sees this as a sign that there isn't much demand for SOL. He asks where SOL will bottom this cycle. That is the question on every trader's mind. 

The SOL price is down, but Western Union is launching a stablecoin on Solana in May. Visa already expanded USDC to Solana. JPMorgan ran tokenized commercial paper trials. The institutional adoption is real. The SOL price is not reflecting it. Something has to give.

SOL price analysis: What the daily and 4-hour charts show

We had a look at the daily chart and the SOL price closed the latest day at $85.45, down 1.70% on volume of 1.43 million. The 100-day SMA sits at $91.36, acting as resistance. The SOL price has been trading below that level for weeks. 

Daily SOL price chart analysis.

The daily chart shows a break of structure to the downside, with lower highs forming. The Fibonacci levels on the daily chart show support at $75 (0.5 level) and $60 (0.618 level). The 3.272 extension sits at $23.99, which is the bear case floor. The daily RSI is at 49.79, neutral. The SOL price is neither oversold nor overbought. It is just stuck.

The 4-hour chart shows the short-term picture. The SOL price is trading at $85.44, down 2.60% on the session. The 100 period SMA sits at $85.65, acting as immediate resistance. The SOL price has been rejected from that level multiple times. 

4-hour SOL price chart analysis.

The support below sits at $85, then $82, then $80. The 4-hour RSI is at 43.29, bearish but not oversold. The SOL price is grinding lower. No panic selling. No aggressive buying. Just a slow drift down. Ted Pillows says that the lack of demand is the problem. The chart agrees.

Western Union and the institutional adoption story

Western Union confirmed its US dollar-backed stablecoin, USDPT, will launch on Solana in May 2026. Built with Anchorage Digital, it will initially settle agent transactions, integrating with Western Union's global cash out network. That is not a test, that is production. 

Each transaction settled on Solana requires SOL for fees, creating incremental buy pressure. Western Union's brand lends credibility, potentially attracting other financial giants. Visa has already expanded USDC to Solana. JPMorgan ran tokenized commercial paper trials. The institutions are coming. The SOL price is not waiting for them, it is falling anyway.

What the on-chain data says about Solana

The Glassnode data tells a story that matches the price action. The number of active addresses on Solana has been drifting lower, from nearly 5.8 million down to around 5.4 million recently. That is not a crash, but it is a decline. When active addresses fall, it means fewer people are using the network. That is not what you want to see when you are hoping for a price recovery.

The number of transfers tells a similar story. The data shows a steady range between 45 million and 48 million transfers. No spikes. Just flat activity. The SOL price is dropping, and the on chain activity is flatlining with it. That is the opposite of what happened in past cycles. 

The Alpenglow and Firedancer upgrades – regulatory clarity vs. security incidents

The Alpenglow upgrade aims to slash block finality to roughly 150 milliseconds and move validator voting off-chain, with a mainnet target in Q1 2026. The Firedancer validator client, already live on testnet, targets 1 million transactions per second. Successful implementation would make Solana dramatically faster and more reliable. 

That would appeal to developers of high-frequency dApps and institutions. But these are complex changes. Past outages have eroded trust. A $285 million exploit on Drift Protocol in April 2026 identified persistent smart contract and operational risks. The upgrades are promising. The security incidents are worrying. The SOL price is caught in between.

U.S. regulators have classified SOL as a digital commodity, exempting protocol staking from securities rules. That clarity aids institutional participation and supports ETF applications, which could unlock billions in inflows. But the Drift exploit shows that regulatory clarity does not fix code bugs. 

Security breaches directly damage user trust and can trigger liquidations. The net effect depends on whether adoption momentum outpaces the frequency and severity of incidents. That is a delicate balance. The SOL price will be volatile.

Where the SOL price goes from here

The SOL price is at $85.45. The daily support is at $85, then $82, then $80. The bear case floor is $60 to $75. The upside resistance is at $91.50, then $100, then $110. The Western Union launch in May is a catalyst. The Alpenglow upgrade is a catalyst. The ETF potential is a catalyst. 

But the SOL price is dropping. Ted Pillows sees no demand. The chart shows lower highs. The institutional adoption is coming. The SOL price is not waiting. The question is where the bottom is. SOL will answer that question. The next few weeks will tell if the Western Union news finally sparks a reversal or if the SOL price continues to drift lower. 

CoinCodex's 1-month SOL price prediction places the price at $105.52, which sits about 23% above the current $85.50 level. That forecast sees a grind higher toward $100 to $110. Ted Pillows sees lower demand and a potential bottom. Same SOL price today, but two very different destinations.