Starbucks (SBUX) Stock: What to Expect from Earnings Tuesday

TLDR

• Starbucks reports Q2 FY26 earnings after market close on Tuesday, April 28
• Analysts expect revenue of $9.17 billion, up 4.7% year-over-year
• EPS forecast of $0.42–$0.43, which would mark the first earnings growth since late 2023
• U.S. store visits rose 5.5% year-over-year in Q1, per Placer.ai data
• Options traders are pricing in a ~6.92% move in either direction post-earnings

Starbucks is expected to post its first year-over-year earnings growth since 2023 when it reports Q2 fiscal 2026 results after Tuesday’s market close.

Starbucks Corporation, SBUX

Wall Street is forecasting revenue of $9.17 billion for the three months ending March, up 4.7% from the same period last year. Adjusted EPS is expected at $0.42–$0.43, compared to $0.41 a year ago.

SBUX stock is up more than 16% year-to-date heading into the print.

CEO Brian Niccol has been running a turnaround plan called “Back to Starbucks” for the past two years. It focuses on faster service, simpler menus, and winning back customers who had drifted away due to high prices and slow wait times.

There were early signs of progress in Q1. U.S. comparable sales rose 4% in the December quarter, with transaction counts turning positive for the first time in eight quarters. Store traffic data from Placer.ai showed U.S. visits up 5.5% year-over-year in Q1, with average visits per location up 5.9%.

Internationally, comparable sales rose 5% in that same quarter, with China up 7%.

Margins Still a Pressure Point

Despite the sales improvement, margins remain squeezed. Higher labor costs, elevated coffee prices, and spending tied to the turnaround plan are all weighing on profitability.

Starbucks has not yet shown it can convert better foot traffic into steady earnings growth. Tuesday’s report will test whether that’s starting to change.

Investors will be watching for any update to full-year guidance, which analysts expect to be raised. The recently announced China joint venture could affect results, and Wall Street is watching how management frames its impact.

Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull raised his price target to $115 from $105 and kept a Buy rating. He pointed to strong domestic top-line trends and said mobile location data supports comparable sales growth of at least 4% in Q2.

O’Cull also flagged that a February limited-time offer featuring Matcha drinks and Valentine’s Day items performed well. The early April launch of Energy Refreshers and a mango-inspired lineup also drove a clear uptick in the first week of the month.

Analyst Ratings Heading Into Earnings

UBS analyst Dennis Geiger kept a Hold rating with a $100 price target. He sees the turnaround gaining traction but thinks the stock already reflects a solid multi-year recovery, leaving limited upside from current levels.

Wall Street’s overall consensus is a Moderate Buy, based on 14 Buys, 12 Holds, and 2 Sells. The average price target sits at $103.58, implying about 6% upside.

Options traders are pricing in a move of roughly 6.92% in either direction following the earnings release — well above the stock’s average post-earnings move of 1.92% over the past four quarters.

The Q2 report will cover the three months ending March 2026.

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