Market analysts said Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest rally to $76,000 was a “clear momentum shift,” confirming a short-term uptrend for BTC price.
Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) supply in profit, a measure of the share of recently acquired coins currently held at an unrealized gain, suggests that BTC/USD has not exhausted its bear market rally, data from Glassnode shows.
Local tops in bear market rallies have historically formed when this metric approaches its statistical mean of 54.2%, a threshold where the concentration of profitable STHs becomes sufficient to trigger meaningful distribution.
Currently at 43.2%, the STH supply in profit remains “meaningfully below that threshold, suggesting the present rally has not yet reached the zone of typical exhaustion,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:
Bitcoin: Short-term holder supply in profit. Source: GlassnodeMeanwhile, Bitcoin has remained in “deep under extension territory” relative to its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $96,800, analyst McKenna said in a recent post on X.
Related: Bitcoin traders cash out 63K BTC profit as price rallied above $76K: Will the market rebound?
When markets deviate either to the upside or downside, they usually revert back to their mean.
Combined with “clear momentum shifts and bullish trending signals firing then I would be inclined to be directionally bullish here, the analyst said, adding:
BTC/USD price vs. 50-weekly SMA. Source: X/McKennaFellow analyst Bitcoin Archive focused on the falling US dollar index, saying that it provides a “massive tailwind for the next leg up” for Bitcoin.
US dollar index. Source: X/Bitcoin ArchiveAs Cointelegraph reported, several metrics support Bitcoin’s potential to rise higher, including increasing network activity and a strengthening technical setup.
Onchain data reveals key Bitcoin price levels to watch
Bitcoin’s 41% drawdown from its $126,000 all-time high has seen the BTC/USD pair drop below key pricing levels, including the active realized price at $85,100, the STH cost basis at $80,950 and the true market mean currently at $78,140.
At $74,000, Bitcoin is 5.2% below the true market mean, a metric tracking the cost basis of active BTC supply.
While the price is yet to “test and stabilize above this key threshold, the probability of a spike toward and potentially above it remains considerable in the mid-term,” Glassnode added.
Bitcoin risk indicator. Source: GlassnodeThe importance of this resistance level is reinforced by cost basis distribution. The heatmap below shows that over 200,000 BTC were acquired for around $78,000.
Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: GlassnodeOn the downside, the first major support is at $72,000, where the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) appear to converge. It is also where investors bought approximately 220,000 BTC.
Lower than that, the $65,000-$70,000 demand zone is a key area to watch. This price band has historically served as a vital support level, as seen between October and November 2024, providing a launching pad for the October 2024-January 2025 rally.
As Cointelegraph reported, a drop below the $70,000 would suggest the bears are back in control, increasing the prospects of a drop toward $60,000.
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