Analyst warns crypto rebound is only a ‘partial reset’ of late-cycle market

As Q2 2026 begins, financial advisor Benjamin Cowen has raised concerns about Bitcoin’s sharp decline. He points out that the price has fallen nearly 50% from its October all‑time high of $126K to the $60K range. 

Although Bitcoin has since rebounded above $70K, trading at $74,409.33 at press time, Cowen warns that the concern remains. Remarking on which, Cowen noted, 

The analyst noted weak demand and heavy liquidity in the market. However, he also believes that there is still room for sideways movement instead of an immediate crash. Seeing the market dynamics, Cowen has advised investors to focus on “capital preservation with selective tactical deployment.” 

Is altcoin season incoming?

Cowen further suggested that the money is getting concentrated in Bitcoin and not altcoins in the current market dynamics. Needless to say, this prompts a question: If Bitcoin is declining, are altcoins rising? But the Bitcoin dominance data, as per TradingView, trading at 59.69%, confirmed that Bitcoin was still dominating.

The CoinMarketCap’s altcoin index further echoed this sentiment.

However, this isn’t enough, as Cowen highlighted that the real interest, social participation, and cooling on-chain data still show strain in the market. 

Ergo, Cowen put it best when he noted, 

Are on-chain metrics echoing similar sentiment?

Confirming this fear in Q2 2026, CryptoQuant’s recent report also echoed the same. The report highlighted how Bitcoin’s price (at the time of reporting) was back to its highest level seen since 4th of February 2026.

However, a profound look recommended that the rally was only strong from the outside. In reality, BTC was at an average buying price for short-term traders, which was acting as a “powerful bear-market resistance level.” 

Drawing on past references, the report underlined that in such scenarios, the price usually makes the effort to move higher but often gets rejected. Additionally, the Bitcoin Exchange Inflow chart reported about 11K Bitcoin being moved to exchanges, further indicating that traders were preparing to sell.

In fact, profit-taking was also minimal at $500 million per day as compared to $1 billion in the past bearish cycles. 

However, BitMine’s Tom Lee also warned of a sell-off in the near term before the market actually takes off. 

Final Summary

• Benjamin Cowen warns of a sell-off phase in Q2 2026 as Bitcoin sits at a 50% drop from its October ATH.
• Bitcoin price, exchange inflow, and daily realized profits analysis by CryptoQuant confirm the ongoing bearish sentiment.