Senator Tillis backs Warsh for Fed Chair as May 15 confirmation odds rise

Senator Thom Tillis has announced his support for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, following the DOJ’s closure of its investigation into Jerome Powell. The odds for Warsh’s confirmation by May 1 sit at 1.9% YES, while the May 15 market surged to 93.5% YES.

Tillis’s endorsement removes a real obstacle from Warsh’s nomination, which now faces a favorable Senate Banking Committee vote where Republicans hold a slim majority. The May 15 market jumped 20 points, meaning traders expect a confirmation catalyst in the next two weeks. The May 1 market stays at 1.9% YES because the timeframe is simply too tight.

The gap between near-term and mid-term odds is wide. The June 30 market at 97.2% YES reflects near-certainty about eventual confirmation, but the May 15 resolution is where the action is. Daily volume on the May 15 market is $17,756 in USDC.

Warsh’s confirmation looks increasingly likely, but the compressed timeline keeps the May 1 market subdued. Buying YES at 2¢ pays $1 if confirmed, a 50x return. That’s a long shot, but worth considering if you think an expedited process is possible. The May 15 market offers a more realistic position given its current trajectory.

The Senate Banking Committee’s vote on April 30 is the next event to watch. Any delay or unexpected opposition could move these markets sharply.

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