US Treasury Secretary claims the IRGC is funneling funds abroad while Trump dismisses in-person mediation trips to Pakistan. The possibility of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 is at 14% YES.
Trump’s preference for phone diplomacy makes physical meetings less likely, pushing odds for no meeting by June 30 up from 9% a day ago. The sub-market for diplomatic meetings has $6,833 in daily USDC volume and a 4-point drop recently. The market for a US invasion of Iran remains inactive, even with Treasury’s financial warnings.
The IRGC’s financial activity and potential new sanctions add tension but haven’t moved invasion odds. The diplomatic meeting market’s rise means traders see a higher chance of no physical talks. Order book depth sits at just $141 to move 5 points, which means sharp moves are possible, but the slow drift higher reflects growing skepticism about in-person diplomacy.
For traders, the news reinforces the current shift toward virtual engagement, making physical meetings less likely. A YES share at 14¢ pays $1 if no meeting occurs by June 30, a 7.14x return. This bet assumes continued reluctance for face-to-face diplomacy, and any official announcement of virtual-only talks or cancellations would likely push odds further.
Watch for statements from the White House or Iranian officials on future meeting plans. Confirmation of virtual-only engagement or a complete halt in talks would move this market.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/us-treasury-warns-irgc-funneling-funds-abroad-trump-favors-phone-diplomacy/
