REGULATION | Brazil Blocks 27 Prediction Markets – Including Polymarket and Kalshi

Brazil’s government has announced the blocking of prediction market platforms operating in the country arguing that these services fall outside the current legal framework and function similarly to illegal betting.

The decision, presented by the Ministry of Finance, confirms that prediction markets – platforms that allow users to wager on real-world events – are not permitted under Brazilian law. Authorities stated that these platforms do not comply with regulations governing betting and financial markets and therefore cannot operate legally in the country.

“We have been monitoring the evolution of this sector in Brazil, which suffered a period of anarchy because there were no rules, no oversight, from 2018 to 2022,” stated the Minister of Finance.

“Therefore, the conclusion reached by the Ministry of Finance, together with the other ministries of President Lula’s government, is that prediction markets are neither legal nor regulated in Brazil.”

According to the government, enforcement has already begun with the national telecommunications regulator taking steps to block access to dozens of such platforms. Officials warned that any new services offering similar products would face the same measures.

The move is part of a broader effort to curb what authorities describe as ‘bet-like’ products disguised as financial instruments. Regulators argue that contracts tied to outcomes such as political events, sports, or other real-world developments resemble gambling and are not covered under existing legislation.

“The measure aims to prevent the consolidation of a new betting market, the so-called prediction market, to stop it from becoming uncontrolled.

From our point of view, if this were to happen, it would pose enormous risks to the Brazilian population,” highlighted the Chief of Staff, Miriam Belchior.

Finance Minister, Dario Durigan, said the platforms operate outside rules approved by Congress, emphasizing that prediction markets are neither regulated nor authorized in Brazil.

“The measure aims to prevent the consolidation of a new betting market, the so-called prediction market, to stop it from becoming uncontrolled.

From our point of view, if this were to happen, it would pose enormous risks to the Brazilian population,” highlighted the Chief of Staff, Miriam Belchior.

The government also framed the crackdown as a consumer protection measure citing risks such as financial losses and the unchecked growth of unregulated betting activities.

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What is Predictive Marketing?

The prediction market functions like a kind of “betting exchange” on future events. In it, people buy and sell financial contracts based on simple questions like “Will it happen or not?”

If the event happens, the person who bet wins money. If it doesn’t happen, they lose. These contracts are called derivatives in financial market jargon.

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