Tesla Stock Forecast: Tesla Bets $2B on SpaceX Growth

Tesla stock held near $387 as of writing, posting modest gains over 6% in the past 7 days and a 5.31%  in the last 30 days, even as investors digested a major strategic move. The company confirmed a $2 billion equity investment in SpaceX, marking a significant shift in how it allocates capital toward artificial intelligence and space-linked infrastructure.

$2 Billion Shift Signals Deeper AI Push

Tesla disclosed the investment in its Q1 2026 earnings filing, identifying it as a major cash outflow tied to investing activities. The funding did not come out of nowhere. It originated from a previous $2 billion stake in xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup. After xAI merged with SpaceX earlier this year, Tesla converted that position into direct equity in the aerospace company.

This move gives Tesla a stake of less than 1% in SpaceX, yet the strategic implications extend far beyond ownership size. The investment aligns Tesla more closely with Musk’s broader ecosystem, where AI, robotics, and space infrastructure increasingly overlap.

Why does this matter for Tesla investors? Because the company now ties part of its future growth to SpaceX’s valuation trajectory, which could reshape how markets view Tesla’s long-term positioning.

SpaceX IPO Adds New Layer Of Excitement

SpaceX has already taken steps toward a potential public listing, with reports pointing to a mid-2026 IPO. The company could target a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, which would place it among the most valuable firms globally. In fact, it now rivals the next 30 global automakers combined.

Tesla’s timing looks deliberate. By securing equity ahead of the listing, the company positions itself to benefit from any surge in valuation once shares begin trading publicly. At the same time, Elon Musk has personally reinforced control by purchasing $1.4 billion in SpaceX shares from employees.

The IPO also includes the integration of xAI, which connects artificial intelligence development with satellite networks and orbital data infrastructure. That integration reinforces Tesla’s broader push into AI-driven systems.

Earnings Beat Meets Delivery Reality

Tesla’s latest earnings report on April 22 painted a mixed picture. The company delivered a stronger-than-expected profit, with earnings per share reaching $0.41 compared to estimates of $0.36. Revenue climbed to $22.39 billion, reflecting steady year-over-year growth.

However, production and delivery figures told a different story. Tesla produced over 408,000 vehicles but delivered just above 358,000, leaving a gap of more than 50,000 units. That imbalance pushed inventory levels higher and raised questions about near-term demand.

At the same time, Tesla generated $1.44 billion in free cash flow, though management warned that figure could turn negative later in the year as spending accelerates.

Terafab And Robotaxi Drive Future Focus

Tesla has increased its capital expenditure plans to over $25 billion for 2026. A large portion of that investment will fund the Terafab project, a joint initiative with SpaceX aimed at producing AI chips. These chips will support humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, and data infrastructure tied to space-based systems.

Analysts continue to focus on Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions as a key growth driver. Bank of America maintained a Buy rating with a $460 price target, pointing to autonomy as a major opportunity in the evolving mobility landscape.

At the same time, the stock’s valuation remains elevated, with a price-to-earnings ratio above 300. That level reflects strong expectations for future growth tied to AI and automation.

Tesla’s latest move shows a clear direction. The company continues to expand beyond electric vehicles, linking its future more closely with artificial intelligence, robotics, and now space infrastructure.